非金融企业宏观杠杆率波动与货币政策传导路径

Macro Leverage Ratio Fluctuation of Non-financial Enterprises and Transmission of Monetary Policy

文章基于2000—2020年中国非金融企业部门宏观杠杆率和上市公司数据,在识别数量型货币政策外生冲击的基础上,采用局部状态依赖投影等方法,从宏观、微观角度研究了企业债务负担对货币政策传导的影响。结果表明,当宏观杠杆率处于高杠杆期时,宽松的货币政策对国有企业投资的促进作用比民营企业更大,对实际GDP、实际投资的促进作用也更大,并且更容易引发通胀;相对于高杠杆企业的金融加速器效应,低杠杆企业投资的预期收益效应更大;异质性分析发现,规模较小、更年轻、现金持有更少的企业对货币政策冲击的反应更强烈。

Based on the macro-leverage ratio of non-financial enterprise sector and the data of listed companies in China from 2000 to 2020,and on the basis of identifying the exogenous impact of quantitative monetary policy,this paper studies the impact of corporate debt burden on monetary policy transmission from macro and micro perspectives by using the state-dependent local projection method.The results show that when the macro leverage ratio is in a high leverage period,the easing monetary policy has a greater promotion effect on investment of state-owned enterprises than private enterprises,a greater promotion effect on real GDP and real investment,and is more likely to cause inflation,and that compared with the financial accelerator effect of high leverage enterprises,the expected return effect of low leverage enterprises is greater.Heterogeneity analysis finds that smaller and younger firms with fewer cash holdings respond more to monetary policy shocks.