“双碳”目标倒逼机制对湖南物流高质量发展的驱动效应实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Driving Effect of"Dual Carbon"Target Forcing Mechanism on the High-Quality Development of Logistics in Hunan Province

“十四五”既是碳达峰的关键期、窗口期,也是湖南省物流业全面绿色转型的重要战略机遇期。文章使用描述性统计对湖南省物流业发展水平的历史演变进行经验分解,建立物流业高质量发展评价指标体系,并采用TOPSIS熵值法开展实证研究,进一步识别各驱动因素对物流业高质量发展的贡献差异。实证结果表明,贡献差异在指标层面上由高到低依次为快递量、货物周转量、物流从业人员的人均货运量、单位GDP物流业碳排放量、单位GDP能源消费量、城市物流仓储用地面积、公路货运量、单位GDP物流业增加值和物流业增加值。准则层面上由高到低依次为物流运行效率、物流服务水平与能力、物流碳排放对高质量发展贡献较大,对物流效益和成本贡献较小。

The 14th Five-Year Plan is not only the critical period and window period for the carbon peak,but also the opportunity period for the comprehensive green transformation of logistics industry in Hunan Province.This study uses descriptive statistics to empirically decompose the historical evolution of the development level of the logistics industry in Hunan Province to establishes an evaluation index system for the high-quality development of the logistics industry,and uses the TOPSIS entropy method to carry out empirical research to further identify the differences in the contribution of each driving factor to the high-quality development of the logistics industry.The empirical results show that at the index level the contribution differences from high to low are the express delivery volume,cargo turnover,per capita freight volume of logistics employees,logistics industry carbon emissions per unit GDP,energy consumption per unit GDP,urban logistics and storage land area,road freight volume,logistics industry added value per unit GDP and logistics industry added value.At the level of each criterion,from high to low,the logistics operation efficiency,logistics service level and capacity,and logistics carbon emission contribute more to the high-quality development,while the logistics benefit and cost contribute less to the high-quality development.