突发事件下住宅小区居民物资需求预测——以X物业为例

Research on Predicting the Material Demand of Residents in Residential Communities Under Unexpected Events--Taking Property X as an Example

为加强住宅小区物业管理,更好地应对突发事件,文章首先对各小区受灾人数等数据进行模糊统计,并结合三角模糊数理论和pert法将不确定变量去模糊化,以确定名义需求量。其次,考虑各受影响小区对资源需求的不确定性,文章引入一类Box不确定集合来刻画受影响小区对应急资源的不确定需求并求得相应的需求盒子集。最后,为了更全面地反映不同小区的情况,保证物资调度的合理性与准确性,文章选取物资短缺度等因子作为需求紧急度的评价指标,采用改进灰色关联分析法,针对非线性连续消耗应急物资运输中的物资竞争问题,对需求紧急度未知数据进行预测。

In order to strengthen property management in residential communities and better respond to emergencies,firstly,this paper conducts fuzzy statistics on the number of people affected by disasters in each community.The paper combines the theory of triangular fuzzy numbers and the pert method to fuzzify uncertain variables and determine nominal demand.Secondly,considering the uncertainty of resource demand in each affected community,the paper introduces a type of Box uncertainty set to characterize the uncertain demand of emergency resources in affected communities and obtain the corresponding demand box set.Finally,in order to comprehensively ref lect the situation of different communities and ensure the rationality and accuracy of material scheduling,the paper selects factors such as material shortage as evaluation indicators for demand urgency.The paper also uses an improved grey correlation analysis method to predict the demand urgency of unknown data in the transportation of emergency materials for nonlinear continuous consumption,in response to the problems of material competition.