印度在国际分工格局中的地位改变了吗?——基于全球价值链视角的测度与分析

Has India’s Position in the International Division of Labor Changed?——Measurement and Analysis from a Global Value Chain Perspective

本文使用投入产出分析法构建前后向全球价值链参与度和显示性比较优势指数,基于此探讨了印度各产业在2007年至2021年期间全球价值链参与和国际分工地位的演变,还对制造业和服务业的特定产业和部门变化进行了分析。研究发现,印度的整体前向全球价值链(GVC)参与度呈下降趋势,但后向GVC参与度相对稳定,整体呈现前高后低,不过前后向相对差距正在不断缩小,这说明印度在国际分工格局中的地位从偏上游的位置移动到更加下游和均衡的位置。其中,印度高GVC参与的产业的GVC参与度出现下降,而其他产业的GVC参与出现上升;农矿业和服务业的前向GVC参与快速下降,在全球分工中的位置下移;制造业还在GVC参与的起步阶段,其前向GVC参与度在不断提高,在全球分工格局中属于下游位置。从时间趋势上看,印度的GVC参与变化经历了两个下降期,其中印度在2014年至2018年所实施的经济政策与印度产业在此期间的GVC参与度下降有一定关联。

This paper employs Input-Output Analysis to construct indices for the forward and backward participation in the global value chain(GVC),as well as the revealed comparative advantage.Based on this methodology,we have investigated the evolution of India’s industries in terms of GVC participation and international division of labor from 2007 to 2021.Additionally,we have conducted a detailed analysis of specific sectors within manufacturing industry and services.The research reveals that India’s overall forward GVC participation has exhibited a declining trend,while its backward GVC participation has remained relatively stable.This overall pattern suggests a transition from a higher position in the international division of labor to a more downstream and balanced position,with the gap between forward and backward participation steadily narrowing.Furthermore,among industries with high GVC participation in India,there has been a decline in GVC participation,while other sectors have seen an increase in GVC involvement.The agriculture and mining sectors,as well as the services sector,have experienced a rapid decline in forward GVC participation,indicating a downward shift in their global division of labor positioning.On the other hand,the manufacturing sector is still in its early stages of GVC participation,with a continuous improvement in forward GVC participation,placing it in a downstream position in the global division of labor landscape.Analyzing the temporal trends,India’s GVC participation has gone through two periods of decline,with some association between the economic policies implemented in India from 2014 to 2018 and the decline in GVC participation observed in its industries during that period.