绿色金融政策对碳排放的空间溢出效应研究

Research on Spatial Spillover Effects of Green Finance Policy On Carbon Emissions

绿色金融政策是推进经济低碳转型升级的重要工具,但在减排降碳实际效果方面存在减少还是转移的争议。基于中国277个地级市的面板数据,构造空间双重差分模型探究该政策对碳排放的影响机理及作用边界,结果表明:绿色金融政策对试点城市具有显著的减排降碳作用,且能通过空间溢出对周边地区产生邻地协同效应,其影响阈值约为300公里;区域资源禀赋过高、工业基础固化、碳中和进程过快三方面均不利于绿色金融政策促进降碳;绿色技术进步和能源结构调整是绿色金融政策减排降碳效应的两种作用机制,且后者贡献优于前者。基于此,建议持续优化绿色金融政策,稳步推进能源结构调整、创新推动绿色技术升级,合理规划政策试点布局。

Green finance policy is a crucial tool for advancing the low-carbon transition and upgrading of the economy.However,there exists a debate regarding whether the policy leads to a reduction or a mere transfer of emissions.With panel data from 277 prefecture-level cities in China,a spatial difference-in-difference model is constructed to explore the mechanisms and limits of the policy on carbon emissions.The results find that:Firstly,green finance policy has a significant effect on reducing carbon emissions in pilot cities and can produce a synergy effect in surrounding areas through spatial spillover,with an impact threshold of approximately 300 kilometers;Secondly,factors such as high regional resource endowment,entrenched industrial base and too tight a schedule of carbon neutrality are not conducive to the promotion of carbon reduction by green finance policy;Thirdly,progress in green technology and adjustment of the energy structure are two mechanisms through which green finance policies achieve emission reduction and carbon lowering effects,with the latter contributing more significantly than the former.Based on these findings,it is recommended to continuously optimize green finance policy,steadily promote energy structure adjustments,innovatively drive green technology upgrades,and reasonably plan the layout of policy pilot projects.