不平等国际货币体系下资本偏向流动与中美贸易失衡

Capital Flow Bias and Sino-US Trade Imbalance Under The Unequal International Monetary System

中美贸易失衡是影响大国关系和高水平对外开放的关键问题,对其原因的探究具有重要的理论和现实意义。在不平等的国际货币体系下,资本流动过度偏向中心国家,可能导致实体经济的失衡,也会引起中美贸易失衡,而这一结构性因素并未得到充分重视。美元成为国际储备货币后,跨境资本流入使得美国的经常账户和贸易账户保持赤字状态,表现为美国和贸易伙伴的贸易失衡。非关税因素在美国贸易赤字传导中发挥关键作用,尤其是贸易伙伴对美国的资本输出规模越大、全球价值链参与度越高、制造业规模越大,其与美国的贸易失衡规模就越大。如果国际货币体系继续以美元为中心,美国的对外贸易将依然保持逆差,并持续向其贸易伙伴传导,目前这一现象在中美贸易失衡中得到体现,未来也可能在美国和其他经济体的双边贸易中显现。在美国对外贸易平衡与维护美元的国际储备地位难以兼顾的情况下,贸易争端并非解决中美贸易失衡的可行方式。推进人民币国际化并促进中国金融市场高质量发展,能够减少对美元体系的依赖,有助于缩小中美贸易不平衡。

Sino-US trade imbalance is a key issue affecting relations between the two major powers and China's higher standard opening up.Investigating its causes holds theoretical and practical significance.Under the unequal international monetary system,excessive capital flows towards central countries may lead to imbalances in the real economy and also cause trade imbalances between China and the United States.However,this structural factor has not received sufficient attention.Since the U.S.dollar became one of the international reserve currencies,cross-border capital inflows have kept the U.S.current account and trade account in deficit,resulting in trade imbalances with its trade partners.Non-tariff factors play a crucial role in transmitting the U.S.trade deficit,in particular,the larger the scale of capital output by trade partners to the U.S.is,with higher participation in the global value chain and larger manufacturing scale,the greater the trade imbalance with the U.S.will become.If the international monetary system continues to be based on the U.S.dollar,the U.S.foreign trade will continue to maintain a deficit and transmit it to its trade partners.This phenomenon is currently reflected in the Sino-US trade imbalance and may also appear in bilateral trade between the U.S.and other economies in the future.When it is difficult to balance the U.S.trade balance while maintaining the international reserve status of the dollar,a resort to trade disputes is not a feasible way to address bilateral trade imbalances.Promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and advancing the high-quality development of China's financial markets can reduce dependence on the dollar system,thereby helping to narrow the trade imbalance between China and the United States.