农业绿色发展先行区政策的效果评估——基于浙江省县域样本的实证研究

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Agricultural Green Development Pioneer Zone Policy——An Empirical Study Based on County Samples in Zhejiang Province

创建农业绿色发展先行区是推进农业绿色生产转型的重要政策。本文利用浙江省2011—2022年60个县(市、区)的面板数据,采用双重机器学习方法,探究农业绿色发展先行区政策对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响机制。研究发现:设立农业绿色发展先行区对农业绿色全要素生产率具有显著的正向影响,并且可促进农业绿色技术进步和农业绿色技术效率提升。调节效应分析发现:生态环保资金能正向调节农业绿色发展先行区政策的绿色效应,而数字普惠金融的调节作用并不明显。机制检验表明:农业产业集聚、产业结构优化是农业绿色发展先行区政策效能发挥的两条作用路径。研究结论从新制度经济学视角,丰富了农业绿色转型的制度路径,也为县域农业绿色转型的实现路径提供理论借鉴。

The creation of agricultural green development pioneer zones is an important policy to promote the transformation of agricultural green production.Based on the panel data of 60 counties(cities and districts)in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2022,it adopted a double machine learning method to explore the impact mechanism of agricultural green development pioneer zone policy on agricultural green total factor productivity(AGTFP).The result shows that the establishment of agricultural green development pioneer zones has a significant positive effect on AGTFP,and promote agricultural green technology progress and technology efficiency.The analysis of the moderating effect finds that Eco-friendly funding can positively moderate the green effects of agricultural green development pioneer zone policy,the moderating effect of digital inclusive finance is not obvious.The mechanism test shows that agricultural industry agglomeration and industry structure optimization are the two pathways for achieving policy effectiveness.The research conclusions enrich the institutional path of agricultural green transformation from the perspective of new institutional economics.Furthermore,it provides theoretical reference for the realization path of agricultural green transformation in counties.