落户放宽政策是否促进了房价增长?——基于70个大中城市准自然实验的实证研究

Does the Household Registration Relaxation Policy Promote Housing Price Growth?——Evidence from the Seventy Large and Medium-sized Cities of China

采用基于Lasso回归的HCW模型,评估了70个大中城市落户放宽政策对房价增速的影响效应,并对其影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明,落户放宽政策短期内对房价增速的影响不大,长期来看提高了房价增速,但效果有限;各城市的影响效应表现出了较大的分化特征,与医疗建设水平、交通便利程度、城市占地规模以及气候环境等因素相关。本文认为,房价增速并没有因为落户放宽政策明显提高,这为在“房住不炒”下实施落户放宽政策提供了更大的空间。并且落户放宽要“因城施策”。

The implementation of the household registration relaxation policy has positive effect on economic and social development.However,does the household registration relaxation policy promote the growth of housing price?The academic discussion is still controversial.Due to differences in development foundation and resource endowment,the performance of different city may also vary.Therefore,it is of great significance to accurately evaluate the long-term and short-term dynamic disposal effect and urban differences of the settlement easing policy on housing price growth,as well as the factors affecting the disposal effect.Firstly,the research object is set as 70 large and medium-sized cities,and an HCW model based on machine learning Lasso method is used to evaluate the policy disposal effect of relaxation of household registration on housing price growth.Next,stepwise regression method is used to analyze the influencing factors of policy disposal effects.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed based on empirical conclusions.The data is sourced from CENET Industry Database,and relevant information about the household registration relaxation policy is sourced from the official websites of the people's governments of various cities.From our results,the following conclusions are drawn.First,in the short term,the policy does not increase the growth rate of housing prices.In the long term,the policy increases the growth rate of housing prices,but the improvement effect is limited.Second,the disposal effects of various cities exhibit significant differentiation characteristics,which are related to factors such as medical construction level,transportation convenience,urban land occupation size,and climate environment.Finally,the household registration relaxation policy should be implemented“according to the city”.The application field of the HCW policy evaluation model is expanded,the research on the influencing factors of housing prices is deepened,micro level Empirical evidence is provided for the in-depth implementation of the settlement easing policy,and there is important practical significance for the reform of the registered residence system and the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry under the background of“housing without speculation”.