中国工业氮氧化物排放和强度的结构分解分析及其减排策略

Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Aggregate Industrial NO_(x)and NO_(x)Intensity in China Using Structural Decomposition Analysis Framework

经济增长给生态环境可持续发展带来了挑战。氮氧化物污染已成为中国社会经济发展的严峻挑战,尤其是工业源氮氧化物污染。现阶段,政策制定者与学者常使用氮氧化物排放总量的变化来衡量环境绩效,少有研究使用结构分解分析方法系统地追踪氮氧化物排放/强度变化的驱动因素。本文在投入产出框架下,对中国工业氮氧化物排放/强度进行加性/乘性结构分解,分别从整体层面、最终需求层面和部门层面探究其驱动因素。结果表明,最终需求层面隐含排放/强度均明显降低,投资和居民消费是氮氧化物排放/强度的主要需求驱动力。排放强度效应是氮氧化物排放/强度下降的主要驱动因素(91.69%),最终需求效应是氮氧化物排放/强度降低的阻碍因素。在部门层面,隐含排放主要由建筑业驱动(49.26%),经济增长主要由服务业驱动(44.90%);“电力、热力生产和供应业”“非金属矿物制品业”和“黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业”排放效率的提高是总排放强度下降的主要驱动因素。基于以上结论,本文讨论了实现经济发展与环境保护双重目标的减排策略,为未来氮氧化物污染的治理提供了理论依据。

Economic growth has brought challenges to ecological and environmental sustainable development.NO_(x)governance has become one of the severe challenges of China’s social and economic development,especially the industrial sources.Although the absolute change in aggregate NO_(x)emissions is often used by researchers and policymakers to measure environmental performance,very few studies systematically track the drivers of NO_(x)emission/intensity changes with structural decomposition analysis(SDA).The embodied industrial NO_(x)emission/intensity is estimated by final demand category at the aggregate and sector levels,and the total NOx emission/intensity is decomposed using additive and multiplicative SDA under the input-output framework.The results show that the embodied emissions/intensity were significantly reduced at the final demand category level;investment was the main contributor to China’s NO_(x)emission/intensity,followed by household consumption.The emission intensity effect is the main driver(91.69%)of NO_(x)emission/intensity reduction,and the domestic Leontief structure effect is the catalyst for the emission intensity effect.The final demand categories presents a blocking effect.At the sector level,the aggregate embodied NO_(x)emission is mainly contributed by construction(49.26%),and the aggregate embodied Value Added is mainly contributed by service(44.90%).The emission efficiency improvement of the sectors“Production and supply of electricity and heating power”,“Non-metal minerals products”and“Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals”make these sectors the main contributors to the decline in the total aggregate embodied emission intensity.Finally,the mitigation strategy is discussed from a win-win perspective balancing economic growth and environmental protection,which provides a theoretical basis for future NOx governance.