产业链安全视角下台湾地区半导体产业的全球布局趋势

On the Trend of Global Layout of Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry Considering Industry Chain Security

台湾地区半导体产业的未来布局变化对全球半导体产业链具有关键影响。基于全球主要经济体对产业链安全问题的关切,从半导体产业发展的阶段特征及技术、资本和市场三类要素着手,对台湾地区半导体产业的生产布局趋势加以预测。研究表明,为有效应对产业链安全与韧性风险,台湾地区半导体产业未来可能遵循“尖端制程留岛内、先进制程向欧美、成熟制程在大陆”的布局策略,以构建更为稳健的产业链网络。台积电近期的全球投资布局案例,提供了直观证据。为深化两岸半导体产业合作,中国内地需要在调整和优化自身产业发展战略的基础上,着力优化半导体成熟制程领域的公平市场环境,促进台资企业有效参与内循环体系,进而整合两岸优势资源以持续提升全球竞争力。

It can be expected that the future layout changes of Taiwan's semiconductor industry will have a critical impact on the global semiconductor industry chain.Taking into account the concerns of major economies on industry chain security,as well as the phased characteristics of semiconductor industry development,the paper aims at forecasting the production layout trend of Taiwan's semiconductor industry within a multi-dimensional analysis framework with three key elements:technology,capital and market.The results indicate a combined strategy for Taiwan's manufacturers to follow,in which(1)the semiconductor production in cutting-edge processes will remain in Taiwan,(2)the production in advanced processes be located in Europe and the United States,and(3)the mature processes production be situated in Chinese mainland.According to the strategy,a more robust industry chain network would be built,and a recent case from TSMC's global investment layout provides intuitive evidence in this regard.In order to deepen cross-Straits cooperation in the semiconductor industry and enhance global competitiveness of both,it is necessary for Chinese mainland to adjust its own industrial development strategy,create a fairer business environment in the field of mature semiconductor processes and facilitate the effective participation of Taiwan-funded enterprises in the domestic circulation system.