生产自动化、人力资本错配与企业绩效

Production Automation,Human Capital Mismatch,and Firm Performance

基于云南大学海外中国企业与员工调查(OCEES)数据,本文实证检验了南亚东南亚地区的中资企业生产自动化与企业绩效的关系。研究发现:首先,企业生产自动化使得企业绩效不增反降,一系列检验表明该结论仍然稳健。产生该结果的原因之一在于生产自动化会引致企业的人力资本错配,而企业受到来自东道国的政府管制和市场规制等约束会加剧生产自动化带来的错配现象。另外,生产自动化对企业绩效的影响在东道国不同的经济发展阶段、制度质量与来源国劣势程度之间,以及企业不同的所属行业、母公司情况以及所在城市规模之间存在异质性。以上负面效应可以通过员工培训、企业社会责任履行以及其他福利的改善等措施予以减缓。本文有助于中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家投资进行事前风险预警,并有效避免企业绩效遭受技术冲击的负面影响。

Since the“Belt and Road”Initiative(BRI)was proposed,thescale of Chinese overseas investment has significantly increased.Simultaneously,the doubts about the BRI have never disappeared,which seriously affect the firm performance and international image of foreign investment enterprises of China.Since local human capital levels are limited and large‑scale hiring of foreign employees is ineffective,these enterprises investing in BRI countries choose more advanced technologies,such as automation and digitalization.However,restricted by the level of human capital in the host country and the“foreigners”role of Chinese enterprises,the impact of production automation on the performance of Chinese enterprises investment remains uncertain in BRI countries.Consequently,it is theoretically and practically important to analyze the relationship between production automation and firm performance of these enterprises.This study uses Chinese enterprises in South Asia and Southeast Asia as samples to explore the impact and mechanism of production automation on their performance.The study shows that,production automation significantly reduces firm performance.Human capital mismatch is an important factor to explain why enterprise production automation reduces firm performance,because the local human capital level cannot match the demand for high‑skilled labors caused by automation.Additionally,government and market regulations in host countries aggravate the mismatch caused by automation.In order to discover more details of the effect,this study conducts heterogeneity tests,including economic development stage,institutional quality,source country disadvantage,industry type,overseas subsidiary with parent companies,and city size of host country,at country and firm levels respectively.The results are as follows.First,the negative impact of production automation on enterprise performance mainly exists in countries with higher institutional completeness,or in factor‑driven countries.Second,the negative impact is also significant in enterprises with disadvantages of origin country,manufacturing industry,overseas subsidiary with parent companies,or located in large cities of host country.Furthermore,this study explores how to alleviate the negative impact of production automation on firm performance.The findings reveal that employee training,fulfillment of corporate social responsibilities and improvement of welfare benefits could be useful for these enterprises investing in BRI countries.The conclusions of this study could be helpful for Chinese enterprises which invest in BRI countries and effectively avoid the performance impact caused by technological progress.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes the following recommendations at both the government and enterprise levels.At the government level,it is more reasonably to arrange industrial layouts,deepen international cooperation in technology,and optimize investment risk management.At the enterprise level,it is important to conduct due diligence scientifically to reduce investment risks,adopt self-adaptive enterprise strategies to diminish human capital mismatch,and establish contingency-based organizational authorization mechanisms to enhance management efficiency.Therefore,this study focuses on the challenges faced by Chinese enterprises investing in BRI countries,which is practically significant for promoting the high-quality development of these enterprises.The contributions include:First,by incorporating the mismatch effect between production automation and human capital into the analytical framework,this study enriches the research on the relationship between production automation and firm performance.Second,by taking the regulatory constraints faced by Chinese enterprises investing in BRI countries into consideration,this study provides plausible explanations for how production automation may reduce firm performance under different investment environments.Third,based on the comprehensive interests of all stakeholders,this study explores feasible solutions to mitigate the negative impact of production automation on firm performance.