全面创新改革试验、软环境与区域创新生态系统韧性——基于空间双重差分及双重机器学习的准自然实验

Comprehensive Innovation Reform Experiment,Soft Environment and Resilience of Regional Innovation Ecosystem:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on SDID and DML

采用2009—2021年中国内地30个省份面板数据(因数据不全,西藏地区未纳入统计),构建基于多样性、缓冲性、进化性、流动性、协调性五维特性的区域创新生态系统韧性评价体系及基于市场环境、政府治理环境、法制环境、金融环境、创新环境的区域软环境评价体系,运用空间双重差分模型、双重机器学习模型就全面创新改革和软环境对区域创新生态系统韧性的影响机制进行准自然实验,结果发现:全面创新改革和软环境均能显著强化区域创新生态系统韧性;全面创新改革对区域创新生态系统韧性具有负向空间效应,而软环境的空间效应能够强化区域创新生态系统韧性;全面创新改革能够强化软环境对区域创新生态系统韧性的促进作用,而软环境的空间效应对全面创新改革的空间效应具有调节作用;全面创新改革能够通过优化软环境对区域创新生态系统韧性的五维特性产生促进作用,但对多样性的影响有限。

The Chinese government is endeavoring to implement the strategy of innovation-driven development.From the perspective of regional innovation,research on regional innovation ecosystem based on niche theory has become the focus of academic research.A regional innovation ecosystem is a system formed by the material exchange,energy exchange,and information exchange between each innovation subject and its environment in a specific space and time range,and its resilience is considered to be the ability of the system to resist external shocks and disturbances,adjust and recover itself through the coordination of internal entities,resource integration and energy flow.Although there were 10 regions selected for comprehensive innovation reform pilot experiments,few studies have explored the impact mechanism of comprehensive innovation reform on the overall regional innovation ecosystem and its resilience.In addition,each evolution stage of the regional innovation ecosystem is closely related to the regional marketization process,economic development level,government behavior,resource stock and other environmental factors.The soft environment represented by laws and regulations,market price mechanism flexibility,and financial trading activity is profoundly affecting the evolution of the regional innovation ecosystem.Moreover,the comprehensive innovation reform test clearly takes policy measures and institutional arrangements as the key tasks of the reform.Therefore,it is necessary to incorporate the comprehensive innovation reform experiment,the soft environment and the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem into a unified research framework for analysis.This paper designs a set of quasi-natural experiments based on the SDID model and the DML model,and with the panel data of 30 provinces in China's Mainland(except Tibet)from 2009 to 2021,it conducts empirical research on the five mechanisms involved in the research system of"comprehensive innovation reform experiment—soft environment—resilience of regional innovation ecosystem":(1)the impact mechanism of comprehensive innovation reform experiment on the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem;(2)the impact of soft environment on the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem;(3)how the spatial effects of comprehensive innovation reform experiment and soft environment affect the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem respectively;(4)whether the comprehensive innovation reform experiment can adjust the influence mechanism of soft environment on regional innovation ecosystem,and whether the adjustment effect is positive or negative;(5)the role of soft environment in the path of comprehensive innovation reform experiment on the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem.It is concluded that,first,comprehensive innovation reform can impact innovation accumulation,knowledge aggregate and resource allocation optimization,which has a significant promoting effect on improving the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem.Among them,the comprehensive innovation reform can play a direct positive impact on the evolution,mobility and coordination of the regional innovation ecosystem,but the direct effect on diversity is not significant,indicating that the short-term economic behavior of local governments is not conducive to the development and scale expansion of multiple innovation entities in the regional innovation ecosystem.In addition,due to the siphon effect and disorderly competition between regions,comprehensive innovation reform will strengthen the geographical polarization of the resilience of regional innovation ecosystems.Second,a high-quality soft environment can provide favorable market competition conditions,stable social order,and structural improvement of the regional innovation ecosystem in terms of institutional arrangements and innovation ecological construction.Therefore,the positive factors in the region can be mobilized to strengthen the complexity,self-organization and self-recovery abilities of the regional innovation ecosystem,and enhance its resilience.In addition,the soft environment can also realize the spillover effect based on the economic spatial weight matrix.Finally,comprehensive innovation reform can strengthen the enhancement effect of soft environment on the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem,and the optimization of soft environment can adjust the negative spatial spillover effect of comprehensive innovation reform on the resilience of regional innovation ecosystem due to the spatial siphon effect.Meanwhile,comprehensive innovation reform can optimize the soft environment to promote the diversity,buffering,evolution,mobility and coordination of regional innovation ecosystem,especially for diversity.Although the comprehensive innovation reform itself has a limited impact on the diversification and scale development of innovation entities,it can have a positive indirect impact on diversity by adjusting the soft environment.