考虑站点耦合关系的大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效分析

Cascading failure analysis of large-scale urban rail transit network considering station coupling relationship

为了解析站点分布密集的大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效传播机理,提出改进的耦合映射格子模型.该模型结合大型城市轨道交通网络站点分布密集特征,量化耦合站点间客流演化及耦合站点抵抗力.为了衡量级联失效在大型城市轨道交通网络中的传播过程与结果,提出失效站点数量比与网络效率比指标.以上海市城市轨道交通网络为例,验证该模型的可行性.结果表明:当节点度高或进站客流量大的站点失效后,耦合站点间的级联失效规模是邻接站点间的约2倍,且由于耦合站点间的级联失效的影响,介数中心性大的站点失效所引起的级联失效传播速度最快.在考虑耦合站点间级联失效时,客流对大型城市轨道交通网络级联失效的作用力是拓扑结构的约9倍.研究结论可以为城市轨道交通网络的规划设计与事故管控提供科学的建议.

An improved coupled map lattice model was proposed to analyze the mechanism of cascading failures on the large-scale urban rail transit network with dense stations.The evolution of passenger flow between coupled stations and the anti-risk ability of coupled stations were quantified combining the characteristics of the dense distribution of stations on the large urban rail transit network.The spreading process and results of cascading failures were evaluated with the station failure ratio and the network efficiency ratio.The urban rail transit network in Shanghai was taken as an example to verify the feasibility of the proposed model.Results showed that the scale of cascading failures between coupled stations was about 2 times bigger than that between adjacent stations when the stations with high degree or large in-flow failed.Cascading failures triggered by the station with high betweenness centrality spread rapidly due to the impacts of cascading failures of coupled stations.Additionally,the effect of the network passenger flow on the cascading failures on the large-scale urban rail transit network was about 9 times bigger than that of topology,when considering the cascading failures between coupled stations.The results can provide scientific suggestions and support for the planning and design,and traffic incident management of largescale urban rail transit network.