基于研制阶段数据融合的舰炮制导弹药测试性评估方法

Testability evaluation method of naval gun guided ammunition based on data fusion in development stage

针对小子样条件下开展测试性评估存在数据冲突的问题,提出一种基于研制阶段数据融合的舰炮制导弹药测试性评估方法。首先,确定研制阶段中舰炮制导弹药测试性信息的来源,并根据其不同特点,利用相应的Beta分布参数折合方法,获得测试性信息Beta分布并构造对应的基本信任分配函数。其次,为解决在数据融合中存在的冲突问题,引入一种基于可信度、不确定度和重要度的数据融合权重确定方法,通过融合多来源的测试性信息得到舰炮制导弹药测试性指标评估结果。实例表明,所提方法能充分利用研制阶段收集的多来源测试性信息,有效利用主观不确定性信息,且减少数据冲突问题,可提高舰炮制导弹药测试性指标评估的可靠性。

Aiming at the problem of data conflict in the testability evaluation under the condition of small samples,a testability evaluation method of naval gun guided ammunition based on data fusion in the development stage is proposed.Firstly,the source of testability information of naval gun guided ammunition in the development stage is determined,and according to its different characteristics,the Beta distribution parameter conversion method is obtained,and the corresponding basic trust distribution function is constructed by using the corresponding Beta distribution of testability information.Secondly,in order to solve the conflict problem in data fusion,a data fusion weight determination method based on credibility,uncertainty and importance is introduced,and the testability index evaluation results of naval gun guided ammunition are obtained by fusing multi-source testability information.Finally,an example shows that the proposed method can make full use of the multi-source testability information collected in the research and development stage,effectively use the subjective uncertainty information,reduce the data conflict problem,and improve the reliability of the testability index evaluation of naval gun guided ammunition.