2008-2022年广东省广州市流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Guangzhou,Guangdong,2008−2022

目的分析广东省广州市2008—2022年流行性腮腺炎的流行特征及发病趋势。方法广州市流行性腮腺炎病例资料和人口数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的传染病监测子系统和基本信息系统。对流行性腮腺炎的发病情况进行描述性统计,同时采用Joinpoint回归(JPR)模型进行发病率趋势分析。结果2008—2022年广州市累计报告流行性腮腺炎病例53993例,年平均发病率为26.08/10万。病例高发于0~14岁儿童青少年,其中0~4岁儿童发病率最高,其次是5~9岁儿童。发病高峰为5—7月,部分年份有2个发病高峰,以冬、夏季为主。JPR分析结果显示,2011年和2014年为广州市流行性腮腺炎发病趋势拐点:2008—2011年发病率呈上升趋势(β1=0.268,P=0.006),年均上升30.70%;2011—2014年发病率呈下降趋势(β2=−0.421,P=0.018),年均下降34.38%;2014—2022年持续下降(β3=−0.116,P=0.002),年均下降速度为10.96%。结论2008—2022年广州市流行性腮腺炎发病总体呈下降趋势。今后应继续落实麻疹–腮腺炎–风疹三联疫苗免疫接种策略,并将学校和托幼机构作为重点防控场所,采取综合性防控措施,有效控制流行性腮腺炎的流行。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of mumps in Guangzhou of Guangdong province from 2008 to 2022.Methods The incidence data of mumps and population data in Guangzhou during this period were obtained from the infectious disease surveillance subsystem and basic information system of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention for a descriptive analysis,and Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend of mumps.Results A total of 53993 cases of mumps were reported in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2022,with an annual average incidence of 26.08/100000.The cases mainly occurred in children and adolescents aged 0−14 years,and the incidence was highest in children aged 0−4 years,followed by children aged 5−9 years.The annual incidence peak occurred during May-July,and there were two incidence peaks in some years,mainly in winter and summer.Joinpoint regression analysis results showed that the incidence rate of mumps in Guangzhou showed an upward trend from 2008 to 2011(β1=0.268,P=0.006),with an average annual increase of 30.70%.The incidence rate showed a downward trend from 2011 to 2014(β2=−0.421,P=0.018),with an average annual decrease of 34.38%,and continued to decline from 2014 to 2022,with an average annual decrease of 10.96%(β3=−0.116,P=0.002).Conclusion Overall,the incidence of mumps in Guangzhou showed a downward trend from 2008 to 2022.In the future,it is necessary to further strengthen the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine immunization.Schools and child care settings are the key places in mumps prevention and control,and comprehensive measures should be taken to control the epidemic of mumps effectively.