基于Copula函数的水闸变形实时风险率量化模型

Quantitative model of real-time risk rate for sluice deformation based on Copula function

变形监测数据实时反映了水闸结构性态及所受荷载的特性,若能根据水闸变形监测资料确定其失效风险概率,将得到更可靠的结果。将原位监测资料融入水闸失效概率分析中,提出一种基于Copula函数的水闸变形实时风险率量化模型,在考虑水闸各部位监测效应量差异性与关联性的基础上,将单测点变形风险率提升为多测点变形风险率,进而实现水闸整体变形风险率的实时量化分析。实例分析表明,模型实现了水闸变形实测效应量与风险率的动态转化,对水闸变形实时风险率进行了整体分析;所得结果符合水闸整体变形风险率变化的基本规律和客观事实,可有效解读工程监测信息和直观反映工程运行性状,可为水闸工程的运行管理和安全监控提供理论依据与技术支撑。

Real-time deformation monitoring data reflects the structural state of sluices and the characteristics of the loads they endure.If the failure probability of sluices can be determined based on deformation monitoring data,more objective and reliable results can be obtained.By incorporating in-situ monitoring data into the analysis of sluice failure probability,a quantitative model of real-time risk rate for sluice deformation based on Copula function is proposed.Considering the differences and correlations in monitoring effects at various parts of the sluice,the analysis elevates the deformation risk rate from single-point monitoring to multi-point monitoring,thereby achieving real-time quantitative analysis of the overall deformation risk rate of the sluice.Case studies demonstrate that the model dynamically transforms the measured deformation effects into risk rates and conducts comprehensive analysis of the real-time risk rates of sluice deformation.The results obtained conform to the fundamental laws and objective facts of the overall variation in sluice deformation risk rates,effectively interpreting engineering monitoring information and intuitively reflecting the operational characteristics of the engineering structure.This can provide theoretical basis and technical support for the operation management and safety monitoring of sluice engineering.