2012—2022年长沙市甲型病毒肝炎发病流行病学特征分析及SARIMA模型构建

Epidemiological characteristics and development of an SARIMA model for hepatitis A in Changsha City from 2012 to 2022

目的分析长沙市近年甲型病毒性肝炎(甲肝)发病流行病学特征,构建SARIMA模型,为指导甲肝防控工作提供依据。方法在传染病监测信息报告管理系统下载2012—2022年甲肝发病相关数据,运用时间序列模型对数据进行拟合,获得甲肝发病SARIMA模型。结果2012—2022年长沙市共报告甲肝发病859例,确诊病例占64.38%,年均发病率0.63/10万,发病率0.54/10万(2022年)~1.30/10万(2013年),年发病率呈逐年下降趋势(χ^(2)趋势=9.12,P<0.05)。发病数、年均发病率均以浏阳市最高(240例,占27.94%,1.53/10万),望城区最低(36例,占4.19%,0.37/10万),不同行政区(县)年均报告发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=117.43,P<0.05)。病例以男性(占60.88%)、农民(占43.19%)、≥60岁(占24.68%)最多。长沙市甲肝发病最优模型为SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12,R2=0.700,预测2023—2024年甲肝人数分别为27、28例。结论2012—2022年长沙市甲肝确诊发病人数呈下降趋势。有一定的时间聚集性。

Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis A recently and to construct an SARIMA model for hepatitis A,so as to provide insights into hepatitis A prevention and control.Methods Hepatitis A incidence-related data were downloaded from the Infectious Disease Monitoring Information Reporting Management System from 2012 to 2022,and fitted with a time-series model to generate an SARIMA model for hepatitis A incidence.Results A total of 859 hepatitis A cases were reported in Changsha City from 2012 to 2022,and 63.38%were confirmed cases.The annual mean incidence of hepatitis A was 0.64/10~5,with the lowest incidence in 2022(0.54/10~5,)and the highest in 2013(1.30/10~5),and the annual incidence of hepatitis A appeared a tendency towards a decline over years(χ_(trend)~2=9.12,P<0.05).The number of incident cases(240 cases,27.94%)and average annual incidence of hepatitis A(1.53/10~5)were both highest in Liuyang City,and lowest in Wangcheng District(36 cases,4.19%;0.37/10~5),and the average annual incidence of hepatitis A varied in district(county)(χ^(2)=117.43,P<0.05).Hepatitis A predominantly occurred in men(60.88%),farmers(43.19%)and individuals at ages of 60 years and older(24.68%).In addition,the optimal model for hepatitis A incidence was SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 in Changsha City(R~2=0.700),and the numbers of hepatitis A patients were predicted to be 27 in 2023 and 28 in 2024,respectively.Conclusions The number of confirmed hepatitis A patients appeared a tendency towards a decline in Changsha City from 2012 to 2022,and the distribution of hepatitis A patients appeared temporal clustering.