尾矿库安全隐患的复杂网络分析:综合中心性方法的应用

Complex Network Analysis of Tailings Pond Safety Hazards: Application of Comprehensive Centrality Approach

随着尾矿库的持续演变和相关因素的不断变化,尾矿库安全管理的难度日益加剧。旨在系统地识别尾矿库的隐患,并通过复杂网络理论深入挖掘隐患间的相互关系及其对尾矿库安全的影响。采用改良的基于证据的三维事故隐患辨识框架(EIFAH),构建了尾矿库事故隐患网络,并揭示了其小世界性特征。通过对网络中心性指标的分析,提出了“综合中心性”这一新概念,用于更高效地识别关键隐患。在综合中心性的构建过程中,融合了度中心性、中介中心性和紧密中心性等传统指标,并通过权重组合测试确定了最优的权重组合。此综合中心性指标相较于单一指标,在识别关键隐患和降低全局网络效率方面表现出显著的优势。实证分析表明,优先处理综合中心性高的隐患节点能显著降低全局网络效率,从而有效地防控尾矿库的风险和提高其安全管理效能。研究的发现为尾矿库的安全管理提供了新的理论支持和实践指导,对于预防尾矿库事故、保护环境和人类社区具有重要意义。通过综合中心性分析的应用,可以更有效地识别和管理尾矿库中的关键隐患,从而提高其安全性和稳定性。

With the continuous evolution of tailing ponds and the constant changes of related factors,the difficulty of tailing pond safety management is increasing.Aims to systematically identify potential hazards in tailing ponds and deeply explore the interrelationships among the hazards and their impacts on tailing pond safety through complex network theory.Adopting a modified evidence-based three-dimensional accident hazard identification framework(EIFAH),constructed a tailing pond accident hazard network and revealed its small-world character.By analyzing the network centrality indicators,proposes a new concept of"comprehensive centrality"for more efficient identification of critical hazards.In the process of constructing comprehensive centrality,integrate the traditional indicators of degree centrality,mediated centrality,and tight centrality,and determine the optimal combination of weights through the weight combination test.This comprehensive centrality metric shows significant advantages in identifying critical pitfalls and reducing global network efficiency compared to a single metric.The empirical analysis shows that prioritizing the hidden danger nodes with high comprehensive centrality can significantly reduce the global network efficiency,thus effectively preventing and controlling the risks of tailing ponds and improving their safety management effectiveness.The findings of this study provide new theoretical support and practical guidance for the safety management of tailing ponds,which is of great significance for the prevention of tailing pond accidents and the protection of the environment and human communities.Through the application of comprehensive centrality analysis,the key potential hazards in tailing ponds can be identified and managed more effectively,thus improving their safety and stability.