江汉地区油菜物候期气候变化趋势影响分析

Oilseeds rape phenology and climate change trend in Jianghan Region

基于1991—2021年江汉地区湖北省宜城市、洪湖市和武汉市江夏区3个农业气象试验站冬油菜物候观测数据,采用回归分析、显著性检验等方法,对江汉地区油菜物候历史变化趋势、气候因子与物候相关关系与响应程度进行统计分析,并展望了气候变暖背景下未来冬油菜生育期变化。结果表明,江汉地区冬油菜播种时间集中在9月下旬—10月中旬,成熟时间在5月上旬—中旬;生育期总天数平均219 d,生育期总天数每10年显著减少5.2 d;现蕾-开花、开花-成熟的生育期天数与气温相关因子均呈显著负相关,与降水量无显著相关性,最高气温每上升1℃生育期天数减少4.2 d;油菜全生育期内江汉地区气温呈现显著上升趋势,最低气温上升速度高于平均气温和最高气温,每10年上升0.2~0.5℃。根据历史气候变化率和各生育区间与气象要素相关性推断2050年江汉地区油菜开花期和成熟期较2021年平均提前3.3和2.8 d。

Based on winter oilseeds rape phenological observation data from three agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Yicheng City,Honghu City,and Jiangxia District of Wuhan City in the Jianghan Region from 1991 to 2021,regression analysis,significance testing,and other methods were used to statistically analyze historical changes in oilseeds rape phenology,correlation between climate factors and phenology,and degree of response in the Jianghan Region.Future changes in growth period of winter oilseeds rape under background of climate warming were also discussed.Results showed that winter oilseeds rape sowing time in Jianghan Region was concentrated from late September to mid October,and maturity time was mainly from early to mid May.Average days of growth period was 219 days,which decreased significantly by 5.2 days every 10 years.Number of days during growth period from bud to flowering and from flowering to maturity was significantly negatively correlated with temperature factors,but not significantly correlated with precipitation.Number of growth days decreases by 4.2 days for every 1 ℃ increase in maximum temperature.During entire growth period of oilseeds rape,temperature in Jianghan Region showed a significant upward trend,with the lowest temperature rising faster than average temperature and highest temperature,increasing by 0.2 to 0.5 ℃ every 10 years.Based on historical climate change rates and correlation between various growth intervals and meteorological factors,it was inferred that flowering and maturity periods in Jianghan Region in 2050 will be 3.3 days and 2.8 days earlier than the average in 2021.