经济发展、房地产市场与住房公积金多维耦合协调研究——以长三角41个地级市为例

Multidimensional Coupling Coordination of Economic Development,Real Estate Market and Housing Provident Fund--A Case Study of 41 Prefecture-level Cities in the Yangtze River Delta

住房公积金与经济发展和房地产市场的协调发展是构建房地产市场长效机制的内在需求,也是住房公积金运行效果的重要表现。基于耦合协调模型,定量测算了长三角三省一市41个城市经济发展、房地产市场和住房公积金在2014—2019年的耦合协调的时空分异。研究发现,在考察期内三者发展耦合程度高、关联度强,总体协调度考察期内逐年上升。三者发展水平及耦合协调度区域上表现为江浙沪地区高于安徽地区。考察期内三者耦合协调度均呈现明显空间自相关特征,江浙沪地区呈现明显“高-高”集聚,安徽地区表现为“低-低”集聚。为构建房地产长效机制提供了新的视角,同时为住房公积金制度改革提供了理论参考。

The coordinated development of the Housing Provident Fund(HPF)with economic development and real estate market is not only the internal demand of constructing long-term mechanism of real estate market,but also an evaluation of the effectiveness of the HPF.Based on the coupling coordination model,this study quantitatively evaluates the spatial and temporal differences of the coupling coordination between economic development,real estate market and the HPF in 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta during 2014-2019.The results suggest that the coupling degree and correlation degree of the three development are high,and the overall coordination degree increases during the investigation period.The development level and coupling coordination degree are higher in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai than in Anhui.The three coupling coordination degrees showed obvious spatial autocorrelation characteristics,with“high-high”agglomeration in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai and“low-low”agglomeration in Anhui.This study not only provides some new insights for building a long term mechanism of real estate,but also offers some theoretical references for the reform of the HPF system.