海洋产业政策与海洋经济高质量发展——多维度评价与非线性效应分析

Marine Industry Policy and High-Quality Developmentof the Marine Economy: A Multidimensional Evaluationand Nonlinear Effects Analysis

海洋是高质量发展战略要地,发达的海洋经济是建设海洋强国的重要支撑,海洋产业政策在推动海洋经济高质量发展过程中发挥的作用成为学界和业界重点关注的议题。从创新、协调、绿色、开放和共享五大方面35个细分维度构建海洋经济高质量发展指数,分析2009—2020年中国沿海各省(市、自治区)的海洋经济发展变化趋势和特征事实。同时,基于北大法宝数据库和《海洋产业分类》收集整理历年各地区出台的海洋产业政策数据,明晰海洋产业政策的历史脉络和发展现状,并评估其对海洋经济高质量发展的实际影响。研究表明:(1)2009—2020年间中国沿海各地区海洋经济高质量发展水平呈现波动性增长态势,中央和地方出台的海洋产业政策表现出适应新时代发展的动态性,形成“中央先行、地方发力”的局面。(2)海洋产业政策显著促进了海洋经济高质量发展,并且对经济发展水平和创新水平较低省份的推动作用更强,而北部海洋经济圈是其发挥作用的主要场域。(3)进一步分析发现,海洋产业政策对海洋经济高质量发展的促进作用随着政府干预能力的提升呈现先递增后逐渐减弱的非线性效应。因此,应强化海洋产业政策的引导作用,因地制宜加强海洋产业政策供给,推动海洋经济高质量发展。

The ocean is a strategic area for high-quality development,and a robust marine economy is crucial for building a maritime power.Promoting the high-quality development of the marine economy has become a focal point for academia and industry,with marine industry policy playing a pivotal role in this process.This study constructs a high-quality marine economy development index based on 35 sub-dimensions across five major areas:innovation,coordination,greenness,openness,and sharing.It analyzes the trends and characteristics of high-quality marine economic development in coastal provinces and cities of China from 2009 to 2020.Using the Peking University Law Database and the“Marine Industry Classification”,it compiles and examines the trends in marine and related industry policies in various regions over the years.This allows us to elucidate the historical context and current status of marine industry policy and assess its actual impact on the high-quality development of the marine economy.The findings indicate that:(i)From 2009 to 2020,the high-quality development level of the marine economy in coastal provinces and cities of China's Mainland exhibited a fluctuating growth trend.The marine industry policies introduced by central and local governments demonstrated dynamic adaptation to new-era developments,reflecting a“central-first,local-driven”scenario.(ii)Marine industry policies significantly promote high-quality marine economic development,with a stronger impact on provinces with lower levels of economic and innovation development.The Northern Marine Economic Circle is the primary area where these policies exert their effects.(iii)The promoting effect of marine industry policies on the high-quality development of the marine economy exhibits a nonlinear effect,initially strengthening and then gradually diminishing as government intervention capacity increases.Therefore,it is crucial to enhance the guiding role of marine industry policies,strengthen the supply of marine industry policies according to local conditions,and promote the high-quality development of marine economy.