地区诚信与分析师盈利预测准确性:来自中国A股上市公司的证据

Regional Integrity and Analyst Earnings Forecast Accuracy:Evidence from A-share Listed Companies

地区诚信作为我国非正式制度的重要组成部分,能够有效监督和约束上市公司行为。以2007—2018年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,从北大法宝各地级市诈骗案判决文书中获取构造年度地级市层面诚信水平衡量指标的数据,进而探究地区诚信对分析师盈利预测准确性的影响。结果表明:(1)地区诚信水平越高,分析师对该地区上市公司盈利预测的分歧度和平均误差越小,这种作用在国有企业、内部治理水平低和金融发展程度低的地区样本中更明显,表明地区诚信可以部分替代所有制、内部治理水平和金融发展程度对分析师盈利预测准确性的作用。(2)机制检验发现,地区诚信通过提高上市公司信息披露质量来降低分析师盈利预测的分歧度和平均误差。因此,应完善社会诚信体系建设,营造良好的营商环境和氛围,提升地区诚信水平,降低信息不对称程度和减少分析师盈利预测误差,进而推动资本市场高质量发展。

This paper investigates uses the effect of integrity,as an informal system,on analysts earnings forecast accuracy by the sample of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 relying on the judgment documents of the fraud cases in the prefecture-level cities crawled from Peking University Law Database to construct the annual integrity level of the corresponding cities.The empirical results show that:(1)Analysts demonstrate less divergence and average error in the earnings forecasts of listed companies in the region with a higher level of integrity.The effect is more pronounced in the samples of the state-owned enterprises,the regions with low level of internal governance and those with low level of financial development,indicating that regional integrity can partially substitute the influence of ownership,internal governance level and level of financial development on the accuracy of analysts earnings forecasts.(2)Mechanism test reveals that regional integrity reduces the average forecast error and divergence of analysts by improving the quality of information disclosure of listed companies.Therefore,integrity can improve the construction of the integrity system in today s society,create a good business environment and atmosphere,reduce information asymmetry and reduce analysts forecast errors,which is of great significance to the high-quality development of the capital market.