融合模糊故障树与贝叶斯网络的高铁车站安全风险因素决策研究

Study on Decision-making of Safety Risk Factors of High-speed Railway Station Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree and BN

运输任务量大、运行速度快及车站规模变大等特征使得高铁车站安全状况面临巨大挑战。因此,提出一种融合模糊故障树(FFTA)与贝叶斯网络(BN)算法的高铁车站安全风险因素决策方法。首先,对高铁车站各系统在实际运营过程中的基本风险因素与事件进行统计分析与建模,确定影响铁路车站安全运营的基本事件共计22个;其次,借助领域内专家经验评判、打分和模糊粗糙集的理论等手段克服数据采集限制;之后,利用故障树分析和贝叶斯网络算法的融合结构克服单一算法在数据处理能力和准确度方面的缺陷,高效、准确地揭示安全风险因素间逻辑和概率关系,确定了缺乏掌握车站资源状态和作业进度的技术手段等4个基本事件为主要影响因素;最后,通过敏感性分析获取了影响高铁车站建设与运营安全性的22项基本事件的风险降低价值重要性(RRW)指标。结果表明:所得四项主要影响因素对应的RRW均大于15%,验证了FFTA和BN所得结果的正确性。所提出的高铁车站安全风险因素决策方法可实现对影响高铁车站安全性的关键指标及对应概率进行准确定位与决策,从而为保障高铁车站安全运营提供有效参考。

The safety situation of railway stations is facing great challenges due to the characteristics of huge transport task load,fast operation speed and larger station scale.Based on this,this paper proposes a decision-making method for safety risk factors of high-speed railway stations,which combines fuzzy fault tree(FFTA)and Bayesian network(BN)algorithms.Firstly,the basic risk factors and events of each subsystem of high-speed railway station in the actual construction and operation process are statistically analyzed and modeled,and a total of 22 basic events affecting the safe operation of railway stations are determined.Secondly,the limitation of data collection is overcome by means of expert experience evaluation,scoring and fuzzy rough set theory.Then,the fusion structure of fault tree analysis and Bayesian network algorithm is used to overcome the shortcomings of single algorithm in data processing ability and accuracy,effectively and accurately reveal the logic and probability relationship between safety risk factors,and four basic events such as the lack of technical means to master the station resource status and operation progress are identified as the main influencing factors.Finally,through sensitivity analysis,the risk reduction value importance(RRW)indicators of 22 basic events that affect the safety of high-speed railway station construction and operation are obtained.The results show that the RRW of the 4 main influencing factors are all greater than 15%,which verifies the correctness of the results obtained by FFTA and BN.The proposed decision-making method for safety risk factors of high-speed railway stations can realize accurate positioning and decision-making of key indicators and corresponding probabilities affecting the safety of high-speed railway stations,thus providing effective reference for ensuring the safe operation of high-speed railway stations.