财政收支的货币效应:理论机制、经验证据及政策蕴含

Monetary Effects of Fiscal Operations:Theoretical Mechanisms,Empirical Evidence,and Policy Implications

财政收支的货币效应理论,在财政与金融之间搭建了一座理论桥梁,对新时期中国经济稳定与金融稳定具有重要的实践指导意义。采用部门资产负债表法,通过构建“多元双层”货币供给理论模型,分层揭示基础货币供给与存款货币供给的一般规律。采用联立方程模型、SVAR模型和梁氏因果检验法对财政收支的货币效应命题开展实证检验。结果表明,在国库单一账户制度下,财政收支与货币供给消长之间存在直接因果关系,即财政收支对货币供给具有“扰动效应”,财政收入引起基础货币与存款货币同时、等量湮灭,财政支出引起基础货币与存款货币同时、等量创造。相比于对存款货币的影响,财政收支对基础货币供给的扰动效应更剧烈。中国存款货币实际供给量已接近现存基础货币与法定存款准备金率所共同决定的货币上限,财政收入缴库引起基础货币湮灭可能会诱发银行间市场流动性紧张。基于此,应建立财政部门与央行部门的常态协调沟通机制,完善国库现金管理存款制度和国库现金余额目标管理制度,财政主动有为,更好发挥在稳金融、稳就业中的积极作用。

The theory of the monetary effects of fiscal operations establishes a theoretical bridge between fiscal policy and finance,holding significant practical relevance for economic and financial stability in modern China.This study employs the sectoral balance sheet approach and constructs a"multi-layered dual"model of money supply to reveal the general laws governing the supply of base money and deposit money.The empirical investigation of the monetary effects of fiscal operations is conducted using simultaneous equations,structural vector autoregression(SVAR)models,and Granger causality tests.The results confirm a direct causal link between fiscal operations and money supply variations under the single treasury account system.Fiscal operations exert a"disturbance effect"'on money supply;fiscal revenues cause an equal and simultaneous annihilation of both base and deposit money,while fiscal expenditures result in their equal and simultaneous creation.The disturbance effect of fiscal operations on base money supply is more intense compared to that on deposit money.The actual supply of deposit money in China is nearing the upper limit determined by the existing base money and the statutory reserve requirement ratio,suggesting that the annihilation of base money due to fiscal revenue collection could trigger liquidity tensions in the interbank market.Consequently,it is recommended to establish a regular coordination and communication mechanism between the fiscal authorities and the central bank,enhance the treasury's cash management deposit system,and target cash balance management systems to allow fiscal policy to play a more active role in stabilizing finance and employment.