中国“减退税并举”政策的经济效应——基于全球价值链的考察

The Economic Effects of China's"Tax Reduction and Rebates"Policy--Research Based on Global Value Chains

本文在包含投入产出关联的多国多行业一般均衡模型中,纳入出口退税政策与增值税政策,考虑中间品与最终品贸易的差异性,量化分析了全球价值链背景下中国“减退税并举”政策的福利效应,并拓展分析其产业升级效应与全球价值链重塑效应。研究结果表明:“减退税并举”政策提升了中国与贸易伙伴国的福利水平,这主要源于中间品减退税力度的加大;不区分中间品与最终品政策差异性或未考虑最终品贸易的模型均会低估其福利效应;仅实施减税或退税政策带来的福利效应提升远低于“减退税并举”政策,且减税主要利于中国,退税主要利于贸易伙伴国;“减退税并举”政策优化了中国产业结构与出口结构,提高了出口国内附加值率,进而促进了中国产业转型升级;同时,“减退税并举”政策促进了中国向全球价值链更高阶攀升,但不利于主要贸易伙伴国的位置提升,且中间品与最终品“减退税并举”政策对全球价值链位置的影响方向相反。本文研究结论为“减退税并举”政策促进中国产业转型升级、向全球价值链更高阶攀升从而助力实现经济高质量发展提供了理论支撑和政策参考。

Based on a multi-country and multi-industry general equilibrium model with input-output correlation,this paper examines the export tax rebate policy and valueadded tax policy,considers the differences between trade in intermediate and final goods,and quantifies the welfare effects of China's"tax reduction and rebates"policy in the context of global value chains(GVC).We further analyze its effects on industrial upgrading and CVC reshaping.The findings are as follows:the"tax reduction and rebates"policy has improved the welfare of China and its trading partners,mainly due to increased reductions and rebates on intermediate goods.Models that do not differentiate between policies for intermediate and final goods or do not consider final goods trade underestimate their welfare effects.Additionally,the welfare effect of implementing only tax reduction or tax rebate policy is much lower than that of combined"tax reduction and rebates"policy.Tax reduction primarily benefits China,while tax rebates mainly benefit trading partners.The"tax reduction and rebates"policy has optimized China's industrial and export structures,increased the domestic value-added rate of exports,and promoted industrial transformation and upgrading.The"tax reduction and rebates"policy has helped China climb to a higher position in the GVC but is not conducive to improving the position of major trading partners.The effects of"tax reduction and rebates"for intermediate and final goods have opposite impacts on GVC positions.This study provides theoretical support and policy reference for the"tax reduction and rebates"policy in promoting China's industrial transformation and upgrading,improving the position of GVC,thus aiding in high-quality economic development.