关税减让、本国市场规模与上游行业出口

Tariff Reduction,Domestic Market Size,and Exports of Upstream Industries

关税减让将引入进口竞争,减少幸存企业数量,降低行业对投入要素的国内需求,进而影响国内上游供应商的出口行为。本文基于中国工业企业数据,以中国加入世界贸易组织作为准自然试验,考察了关税减让对上游行业出口的影响。倍差法估计结果显示:加入WTO前下游关税较高从而受贸易自由化影响较大的行业,加入WTO之后,出口倾向和强度明显下降。本文基于行业间投入产出关系的视角提供了关于本地市场效应的证据,也验证了国内市场规模与出口之间的内在联系。

Import competition induced by tarff reduction decreases the number of surviving firms,shrinks the demand for inputs,and changes input suppliers'exporting behaviors.Exploiting the quasi-natural experiment of China's WTO accession,this paper examines the impact of tariff reduction on exports of upstream industries using data from China's Annual Survey of Industrial Firms.Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that industries with higher downstream tariffs(thus more exposed to downstream trade liberalization)before China's WTO accession experience a more significant decrease in exports thereafter.From the perspective of inter-industrial input-output relationships,we contribute to the empirical evidence about the home market effect and test the relationship between the domestic market and exports.