脱贫山区县域生计效率评估与仿真研究——以陕南秦巴山区为例

Assessment and Simulation of County Livelihood Efficiency in Poverty-Alleviation Areas:A Case Study of the Qinba Mountainous Area of Southern Shaanxi,China

脱贫山区是生态环境脆弱区和贫困人口的集中区,生计效率低下,可持续生计问题突出,是新时期防止返贫动态监测的重点区、全面推进乡村振兴战略的难点区。过往研究多关注农户尺度静态的生计及效率问题,对生计过程及结果的效率评估研究不足,难以揭示生计的动态变化趋势及制约其发展的瓶颈问题。本研究以陕南秦巴山区28个区县为例,运用系统动力学方法构建县域生计效率系统动力学模型,从生计资本角度出发设计5类调控模式共26种情景并进行仿真模拟。结果表明:(1)2015—2021年,陕南秦巴山区县域生计效率整体处于相对中等水平。其中,岚皋县、商南县、山阳县的生计效率相对较低,柞水县、城固县、汉台区的生计效率相对较高。(2)2022—2035年,陕南秦巴山区县域生计效率将从0.809提升至0.969,生计效率的年平均值为0.915,脱贫山区县域生计效率未来将呈上升趋势。(3)增加人口、降低设施农业、降低耕地、降低金融机构贷款、降低福利等策略可有效提升脱贫山区县域生计效率。本研究可为脱贫山区提高生计质量、生计效率提供科学依据,也可为推动类似区域可持续发展、乡村振兴提供参考。

Mountainous regions of poverty-alleviation in China are areas with fragile ecological environment and concentration of impoverished populations,characterized by low livelihood efficiency and persistent sustainable livelihood issues.They are the focuses of dynamic monitoring for poverty-returning prevention in the new era,and the most concern of comprehensive promotion of Chinese rural revitalization strategy.Previous studies mostly addressed the issues of static livelihood efficiency on a farm household scale,with relatively less attention to livelihood efficiency processes and associated outcomes,making them not enough to interpret the dynamic trend of farm livelihood in mountainous regions of poverty-alleviation in China and the inherent bottlenecks constraining their development.In this study,it took 28 counties in the Qinba mountainous area in southern Shaanxi province of China for a case study;a county livelihood efficiency system dynamics model was constructed using system dynamics methods;a total of 26 scenarios in 5 types of regulation modes were designed to simulate the livelihood efficiency in terms of livelihood capital.(1)From 2015 to 2021,the county livelihood efficiency in the Qinba mountainous area was generally at a relatively moderate level.Among them,the livelihood efficiency in Langao county,Shangnan county,and Shanyang county was relatively low,whereas Zhashui county,Chenggu county,and Hantai district had relatively higher livelihood efficiency.(2)As expected,between 2022 and 2035 the county livelihood efficiency in the Qinba mountainous area would be an upward trend,with an increase from 0.809 to 0.969,an annual average of 0.915 during the period.(3)Strategies such as increasing population,reducing facility agriculture,reducing arable land,reducing financial institution loans,and reducing welfare are expected to significantly enhance the county livelihood efficiency of mountainous regions of poverty-alleviation in China.This study provides a scientific basis for improving the livelihood quality and efficiency in poverty-alleviation areas of China,as well as a reference for promoting sustainable development and rural revitalization in similar regions.