基于系统动力学的民族地区旅游业低碳化转型模式研究

Research on the Low-Carbon Transition Mode of Tourism Industry in Ethnic Areas Based on the System Dynamics Model

民族地区旅游业的低碳转型对于破解欠发达地区能源环境约束下的旅游经济增长困局、实现节能减排与经济增长的“双赢”至关重要。通过构建民族地区旅游业低碳化转型系统动力学模型,论文绘制出需求、供给、支持、中介四大子系统耦合的因果关系图和存量流量图,并运用Vensim软件以典型民族地区广西三江侗族自治县为例进行实证分析,对未来不同发展模式下三江县旅游业低碳化转型系统进行仿真试验。结果显示:相较于自然转型模式和高速转型模式,三江县旅游业在适度转型模式下的综合效益更好,在实现旅游业低碳转型的同时提高了政府、居民收入和旅游需求,达到更优的旅游经济增长。据此得到政策启示:民族地区受限于资金不够充裕以及缺乏对外宣传渠道,更需合理调配有限资源;采取循序渐进的发展模式,平衡好低碳转型和财政负担,是民族地区低碳旅游产业可持续发展的更好选择。

The low-carbon transition of tourism in minority areas is crucial for overcoming the dilemma of tourism economic growth under the constraint of energy environment in ethnic minority areas and realizing the“win-win”situation of energy conservation,emission reduction and economic growth.By constructing a system dynamic model for the low-carbon transformation of tourism in ethnic minority areas,this paper draws a causal diagram and a stock flow diagram of the coupling of four subsystems of demand,supply,support and intermediary,and makes an empirical analysis by using Vensim software to take Sanjiang Dong Autonomous County of Guangxi,a typical ethnic area,as an example.The paper makes a simulation test on the low-carbon transformation system of tourism in Sanjiang County under different development modes in the future.The results show that the implementation of moderate transition mode in Sanjiang County has better comprehensive benefits than the implementation of natural transition mode and high-speed transition mode.While achieving low-carbon transition in the tourism industry,it has increased government income,resident income,and tourism demand,and achieved better tourism economic growth.Adopting a step-by-step development model which balances low-carbon transition and financial burden proves a better choice for the sustainable development of low-carbon tourism industry in ethnic minority areas.