天然气发电在新型电力系统中的功能定位及发展前景研判

Functional Orientation and Development Prospect of Natural Gas Power Generation in New Power System

天然气发电具有排放低、效率高、调节灵活等优势,是“双碳”目标下构建新型电力系统的重要组成和有效电源,但中国天然气发电发展存在气源保障程度不高、燃料成本较高、关键核心技术受限等问题,当前,各方对“双碳”进程中天然气发电发展问题仍有争议,亟待统一认识,明确发展定位和方向。将天然气发电与新能源发电的融合发展纳入电力系统整体规划考虑,采用自主开发的碳达峰、碳中和电力规划软件包进行优化分析,以电力行业零碳为目标构建电力低碳转型情景,研判了碳中和目标下天然气发电未来发展规模与布局,并就影响天然气发电未来规模的不确定性因素展开了敏感性分析。依托模型测算结果,建立评估气电在新型电力系统中功能作用的量化指标,分析未来天然气发电在清洁电量供应、电力平衡、调峰平衡中的功能作用。天然气发电未来仍须适度发展,新增布局仍主要集中在东南沿海,中西部逐渐增加,未来重点须加强天然气产运储销统筹协调、完善天然气和气电价格机制、加快攻关核心技术,切实发挥天然气发电在新型电力系统构建过程中的积极作用。

Natural gas power generation has the advantages of low emissions,high efficiency,and flexibility.It is an important component and effective power source for building a new power system under the dual carbon goals of reaching carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality.However,there are still problems in China's natural gas power generation development,such as the relatively low gas source guarantee,high fuel costs,and limited key core technologies.At present,disputes about the development of natural gas power generation in the dual carbon process still exist.It is urgent to have a unified understanding and clarify its development orientation and direction.This paper takes the integrated development of natural gas power generation and new energy generation into consideration in the overall planning of the power system.It uses self-developed carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality power planning software packages for optimization analysis and constructs a low-carbon transformation scenario for the power industry with zero carbon as the goal.It analyzes the future development scale and layout of natural gas power generation under the carbon neutrality goal and conducts sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty factors affecting the future scale of natural gas power generation.Based on the model calculation results,the paper establishes quantitative indicators to evaluate the functional role of gas-fired electricity in new power systems and analyzes its functional role in clean electricity supply,power balance,and peak shaving balance in the future.Natural gas power generation still needs moderate development in the future,with new layouts mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas and gradually increasing in the central and western regions.In the future,the focus must be on strengthening the coordination of natural gas production,transportation,storage,and sales,improving the pricing mechanism of natural gas and gas-fired electricity,and accelerating the development of core technologies,to give full play to the positive role of natural gas power generation in the construction of new power system.