宜都市未来土地利用与生态系统服务的多情景模拟

Multi⁃scenario Simulation of Future Land Use and Ecosystem Services in Yidu City

[目的]探索宜都市土地利用与生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系,并通过多情景模拟优化这一关系。[方法]采用多目标规划和斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(PLUS),构建自然演变、经济优先和低碳发展3种未来发展情景,并运用InVEST模型评估2030年不同情景下宜都市的土地利用结构、空间布局和生态系统服务价值。[结果]低碳发展情景下宜都市的土地利用结构最为合理,空间布局最集约,生态系统服务价值最高。相较于其他情景,低碳发展情景在土地利用与生态系统服务的协调性和可持续性方面表现更佳。[结论]低碳发展情景为宜都市提供了最佳的土地利用与生态系统服务协调路径。

[Objective]To explore the trade⁃off and synergistic relationship between land use and ecosystem services in Yidu City,and opti⁃mize this relationship through multi⁃scenario simulation.[Method]Multi⁃objective planning and patch generation land use simulation model(PLUS)were used to construct three future development scenarios.The land use structure,spatial layout and ecosystem service value of Yidu City under different scenarios in 2030 were evaluated using InVEST model.[Result]Under the scenario of low⁃carbon development,the land use structure of Yidu City was the most reasonable,the spatial layout was the most intensive,and the ecosystem service value was the highest.Compared to other scenarios,the low⁃carbon development scenario performed better in terms of coordination and sustainability between land use and ecosystem services.[Conclusion]The low⁃carbon development scenario provides the best coordination path between land use and ecosys⁃tem services in Yidu City.