甘肃省粮食生产效率时空演变及影响因素研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Grain Production Efficiency in Gansu Province

粮食是民生的基础保障,保障产销平衡区粮食产量的稳定是必要的,对产销平衡区粮食生产效率影响因素进行探究,可为政府因地制宜地制定相关政策提供理论依据,文章以甘肃省14个市州的统计数据为基础,通过DEA模型对甘肃省2012—2021年的粮食生产效率变化情况进行测算,用ArcGIS软件揭示出甘肃省粮食生产效率的时空演变特征,并利用Tobit回归模型分析出影响粮食生产效率的因素。研究表明:第一,甘肃省的粮食生产效率在研究期内呈现出波动上升的趋势,尤其是自2017年以来,这种趋势更加显著;第二,甘肃省的粮食生产效率呈现出明显的区域性空间差异;第三,人均可支配收入、第一产业从业人员数量以及农业机械密度均对粮食生产效率产生了显著的正向影响。

As the basic guarantee of people′s livelihood,it is necessary to ensure the stability of grain yield in the production-marketing balanced area.Exploring the factors affecting grain production efficiency in the production-marketing balanced area can provide a theoretical basis for the government to formulate relevant policies according to local conditions.This paper is based on the statistical data of 14 cities and states in Gansu Province.The DEA model was used to measure the change of grain production efficiency in Gansu Province from 2012 to 2021.ArcGIS software was used to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of grain production efficiency in Gansu Province,and the factors affecting grain production efficiency were analyzed by using Tobit regression model.The results showed that:(1)The grain production efficiency of Gansu Province showed a fluctuating upward trend during the study period,especially since 2017.(2)The grain production efficiency of Gansu Province showed obvious regional spatial differences.(3)Per capita disposable income,the number of employees in the primary industry and the density of agricultural machinery all had significant positive effects on the grain production efficiency.