基于ANP与物元可拓模型的冻土区高速公路施工安全风险评价研究

Safety risk evaluation of highway construction in permafrost region based on ANP and Matter-Element Extension Model

冻土区高速公路施工难度大,施工过程受多种风险因素以及风险因素之间的联动效应影响,客观全面的施工安全风险评价需构建特定情境的风险评价指标体系,并考虑指标之间的相互作用,得出量化的风险数值。因此,研究提出网络分析法(ANP)与物元可拓模型相结合的风险评价模型。首先,构建总目标、4个一级指标和12个二级指标的三级冻土区高速公路施工安全风险评价指标体系;其次,建立指标相互关联的ANP网络结构模型,计算各级指标的综合权重;最后,根据物元可拓模型得出多级可拓评价结果。案例分析显示,该冻土区高速公路施工安全风险等级为3级(安全风险较大),与实际施工情况相符,进一步针对性地提出了加强施工安全的建议措施。

The construction of highway in permafrost region is highly challenging due to the construction process being impacted by various risks and their interconnected effects.For an objective and comprehensive evaluation of construc⁃tion safety risks,it is necessary to establish a risk evaluation index system tailored to specific scenarios,taking into ac⁃count the interactions among indicators,in order to derive a quantified risk value.Therefore,this study proposed a risk evaluation model that integrated the Analytic Network Process(ANP)with the Matter-Element Extension Model.Firstly,a three-level safety risk evaluation index system for highway construction in permafrost region was established,compris⁃ing an overall goal,four first-level indicators,and twelve second-level indicators.Secondly,an ANP network structure model that captured the interrelationships among indicators was developed to calculate the comprehensive weights of in⁃dicators at all levels.Finally,a multi-level extension evaluation result was derived based on the Matter-Element Exten⁃sion Model.A case study reveals that the construction safety risk level of the highway in the permafrost region is classi⁃fied as Level 3(relatively high risk),which aligns with actual construction conditions.Consequently,targeted recommen⁃dations are further proposed to enhance construction safety.