1990~2019年中国非风湿性瓣膜性心脏病疾病负担及变化趋势分析

Disease Burden and Changing Trend of Non-rheumatic Valvular Heart Disease From 1990 to 2019 in China

目的:分析1990~2019年中国非风湿性瓣膜性心脏病(non-rheumatic valvuiar heart disease,NRVHD)疾病负担及变化趋势。方法:基于2019年全球疾病负担数据库收集1990~2019年中国NRVHD相关数据,分析这一时期NRVHD的粗发病率、粗患病率、粗伤残调整寿命年(DALY)及其年龄标化率等数据,并通过Joinpoint回归模型分析相应的变化趋势。利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测2020~2029年中国NRVHD负担状况。结果:中国NRVHD粗发病率、粗患病率和粗DALY率从1990年的7.87/10万、123.21/10万和9.83/10万上升到2019年的22.85/10万、374.16/10万和11.95/10万;年龄标化发病率、年龄标化患病率从1990年的9.22/10万、169.04/10万上升到2019年的15.30/10万、262.85/10万,女性均高于男性;年龄标化DALY率从1990年的13.43/10万下降到2019年的9.07/10万,女性均高于男性。Joinpoint回归模型分析显示,年龄标化发病率、年龄标化患病率呈上升趋势,年龄标化DALY率呈下降趋势[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分别为1.86%、1.72%和-1.66%],变化趋势有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。1990~2019年不同年龄组人群的疾病负担整体呈上升趋势,其粗发病率、粗患病率及粗DALY率均随着年龄的增长而升高,60岁以上的老年人群是疾病负担的主要群体。灰色预测模型GM(1,1)结果显示,至2029年年龄标化发病率和年龄标化患病率分别增加到18.51/10万、303.26/10万,年龄标化DALY率下降到7.42/10万。结论:1990~2019年中国NRVHD的年龄标化发病率、年龄标化患病率呈上升趋势,年龄标化DALY率均呈下降趋势。NRVHD的疾病负担仍然较重,女性和高龄人群尤其需要关注。

Objectives:To analyze the disease burden and changing trends of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease(NRVHD)from 1990 to 2019 in China.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database,we collected data related to NRVHD in China from 1990 to 2019,analyzed the crude incidence rate,crude prevalence rate,crude disability-adjusted life year(DALY),and agescaled rate of NRVHD during this period,and analyzed the corresponding trends.The grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict the disease burden of NRVHD in China from 2020 to 2029.Results:The crude incidence,crude prevalence,and crude DALY rates of NRVHD increased in China from 7.87/100000,123.21/100000,and 9.83/100000 in 1990 to 22.85/100000,374.16/100000,and 11.95/100000 in 2019;the age-standardized incidence rate and the age-standardized prevalence rate increased from 9.22/100000 and 169.04/100000 in 1990 to 15.30/100000 and 262.85/100000 in 2019 respectively,with females being higher than males;the age-standardized DALY rate declined from 13.43/100000 in 1990 to 9.07/100000 in 2019,with females being higher than males.Joinpoint regression model analysis showed an increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate,and a decreasing trend in the age-standardized DALY rate(annual average percentage change[AAPC]values of 1.86%,1.72%and-1.66%,respectively),trend of change was statistically significant(all P<0.05).The burden of disease for all age groups from 1990 to 2019 showed an overall increasing trend,and the crude incidence rate,crude prevalence rate and crude DALY rate all increased with age,and the elderly group over 60 years old was the main group of disease burden.The results of the grey prediction model showed that by 2029,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate would increase to 18.51/100000 and 303.26/100000,respectively,and the age-standardized DALY rate would decrease to 7.42/100000.Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of NRVHD in China showed an increasing trend,and the age-standardized DALY rate all showed a decreasing trend.The disease burden of NRVHD in China remains high.Women and the senior population are the main target groups needing special attention in China,and more targeted prevention and treatment strategies are needed for high-risk population.