产业多样化、技术创新与区域经济韧性

Industrial Diversification,Technological Innovation,and Economic Resilience

经济韧性增长是新发展阶段区域经济的演化目标。立足于抵抗力和恢复力两个维度,通过反事实分析测度中国各地区在面临突发卫生事件外部冲击时的经济韧性。并进一步基于双循环研究框架,借助空间计量实证检验产业多样化和技术创新对经济韧性的驱动作用。研究发现:(1)经济韧性空间分异明显,抵抗力总体呈“中西部地区-长江黄河中游-沿海地区-东北地区”递减分布,高恢复力区域则主要集中在沿海地带,抵抗力和恢复力负向相关;(2)产业多样化和技术创新在塑造区域经济韧性方面发挥了显著驱动作用,同时具有空间溢出效应。此外,当与双循环因素交互后,二者的驱动作用进一步增强。基于对实证结果的综合分析,最后就如何改进韧性表现提出了政策建议。

This study evaluates China’s regional economic resilience during the pandemic using counterfactual analysis,focusing on resistance and recovery.It employs spatial econometrics to analyze the impact of industrial diversification and technological innovation on economic resilience within a dual-cycle framework.Findings reveal significant spatial differences in economic resilience and the pivotal role of diversification and innovation,which also exhibit spatial spillovers.Interaction with dual-cycle elements further amplifies these effects.Policy suggestions for enhancing resilience are proposed.