日本武器出口政策及趋向

Japan's Arms Export Policy and Its Trends

自安倍政府于2014年4月提出“防卫装备转移三原则”至今,日本逐步通过三种途径扩大武器出口,即向国际冲突当事国出口武器、与美国以及其他多国合作。日本扩大武器出口的动因主要包括国内产业因素以及内外政治因素。前者即日本提振军工产业的需求,后者包括日本自身围堵中国的战略需要以及美国的默许与支持。未来日本会继续扩大武器出口的对象范围并增加出口武器的类型,但也面临诸多因素制约,例如国际冲突的偶然性、日本国内政治的制约、美国有意压制日本武器出口的上限、国际社会的反对等。虽然日本在短期内仍难以成为国际军火市场的主要玩家,但其武器出口的军事与政治影响依然较大。

Since the Abe Administration introduced Three Principles of Defense Equipment Transfer in April 2014,Japan has gradually expanded its arms exports by three means,including exporting arms to countries involved in international conflict and cooperating with the United States and other countries.Japan's motivations for expanding arms exports mainly include domestic industrial factors as well as domestic and international political factors.The former is the need for Japan to boost its defense industry.The latter includes Japan's strategic need to contain China,and acquiescence and support from the United States.In the future,Japan will continue to expand the scope of its arms exports and increase the types of arms exported.However,Japan's arms exports are also constrained by various factors,such as the unpredictability of international conflicts,domestic political constraints,the United States' intention to limit Japan's arms exports,and opposition from international community.Although Japan is unlikely to become a major player in international arms markets in the short term,the military and political impact of Japan's arms exports remains significant.