基于公众感知的案例推理型风险决策方法

Case-based Reasoning Style Risk Decision Making Method Based on Public Perception

针对重大民生事项的决策特点提出一种基于公众感知的案例推理型风险决策方法。首先,根据重大民生事项的类型和特征从案例库中识别出适用于该事项的历史案例。然后基于公众感知对历史案例的实施效果进行评价,从而生成备选方案。根据决策活动的实际需要确定方案属性,给出不同状态下的方案属性值。再根据公众感知信息确定备选方案的属性期望值,利用累计前景理论计算备选方案的综合前景值,确定最优方案。最后引入算例对该方法的可行性和有效性进行说明。

Aiming at the decision-making characteristics of major people's livelihood issues,a case-based reasoning style risk decision-making method based on public perception is proposed.Firstly,according to the types and characteristics of major livelihood matters,the historical cases applicable to the matter are identified from the case base.Secondly,the implementation effect of the historical cases is evaluated based on public perception,the alternatives are presented.According to the actual needs of decision-making activities,the attributes of alternatives are determined,the attribute values in different states are given.Thirdly,the attribute expectation of the alternatives is determined based on public perception,the comprehensive prospect value of the alternatives is calculated by the cumulative prospect theory,the optimal alternative is obtained.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.