极端气候模型与气象数据分析——以苏州为例

Extreme Climate Model and Meteorological Data Analysis

极端气候导致的自然灾害给人类带来巨大损失.通过数学模型和数据分析给出极端气候的成因和影响,以苏州地区为例,利用MATLAB编程,结合M-K突变检测和BFAST算法研究极端气候变化.通过建立均温时间序列模型对未来五年苏州地区年平均温度进行预测,得出未来五年苏州地区年平均温度持续升高的结论.

Natural disasters caused by extreme climate have brought great losses to human beings.This paper presents the causes and effects of extreme climate through mathematical model and data analysis.Taking the climate of Suzhou region as an example,we use MATLAB programming and combine M-K mutation detection and BFAST algorithm to study the possibility of the extreme climate change in Suzhou area.By establishing the average temperature time series model to predict the annual average annual temperature in Suzhou in the next five years,we conclude that the annual average temperature in Suzhou will increase continuously in the next five years.