2022年全球肝癌与胆囊癌发病死亡及2050年预测分析

Global liver and gallbladder cancer incidence and mortality in 2022 and projections to 2050

目的:分析2022年全球肝癌和胆囊癌流行病学现状,预测至2050年全球肝癌和胆囊癌发病死亡负担。方法:基于国际癌症研究机构(International Agency for Research on Cancer,IARC)2024年2月发布的GLOBOCAN 2022数据库,分析2022年并预测至2050年全球肝癌和胆囊癌疾病负担。年龄标准化发病率和死亡率使用Segi’s世界标准人口结构数据计算。新发及死亡病例预测基于《世界人口展望》预计人口估算。结果:2022年全球肝癌新发病例866136例,死亡病例758725例,标准化发病率和死亡率分别为8.6/10万和7.4/10万。2022年全球胆囊癌新发病例122491例,死亡病例89055例,标准化发病率和死亡率分别为1.2/10万和0.83/10万。不同年龄组男性肝癌发病率、死亡率均高于女性;女性胆囊癌发病率、死亡率均高于男性。在全球185个国家中,蒙古国肝癌标准化发病率和死亡率最高,玻利维亚胆囊癌标准化发病率和死亡率最高。2050年肝癌预测新发病例1564034例、死亡病例1420926例,分别较2022年上涨约80.6%、87.3%;胆囊癌预测新发病例235096例、死亡病例176725例,分别较2022年上涨约91.9%、98.4%。2050年非洲肝癌和胆囊癌新发和死亡病例涨幅最大。结论:各国肝癌和胆囊癌疾病负担存在差异,疾病负担较重及快速增长的地区(如亚洲、非洲等)或国家(如蒙古国、玻利维亚等)应更加积极主动采取癌症防控措施。

Objective:To analyze the global epidemiological profiles of liver and gallbladder cancer in 2022,and project the global burden of cancer incidence and mortality until 2050.Methods:Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022 database,we analyzed the global burden of liver and gallbladder cancer in 2022 and the projected disease burden in 2050.We calculated age-standardized incidence rates(ASIRs)and age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)by using Segi's world standard population structure data.We estimated the future number of cases and deaths by 2050 based on world population prospects.Results:In 2022,there were an estimated 866,136 new cases and 758,725 deaths from liver cancer,corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 8.6 per 100,000 and 7.4 per 100,000,respectively.There were an estimated 122,491 new cases and 89,055 deaths from gallbladder cancer,corresponding to ASIRs and ASMRs of 1.2 per 100,000 and 0.83 per 100,000,respectively.Incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer were higher in males than in females across different age groups,and gallbladder cancer displayed higher rates among females compared to males.The country with the highest ASIR and ASMR for liver cancer was Mongolia.For gallbladder cancer,Bolivia reported the highest ASIR and ASMR.By 2050,the annual number of new cases and deaths from liver cancer will increase to 1,564,034(an 80.6 percent increase from the year 2022)and 1,420,926(an 87.3 percent increase),respectively.The annual number of new cases and deaths from gallbladder cancer will increase to 235,096(a 91.9 percent increase from the year 2022)and 176,725(a 98.4 percent increase),respectively.Africa has the largest increase in both projected new cases and deaths from liver and gallbladder cancer globally in 2050.Conclusions:Inequities in liver and gallbladder disease burden persist worldwide.Regions such as Asia and Africa,as well as countries such as Mongolia and Bolivia,which face heavy disease burden and rising incidence rates,must prioritize the establishment of cancer control initiatives.