城市韧性对高质量发展的影响机制研究——基于2005—2020年市级面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Influence Mechanism of Urban Resilience on High-quality Development--Empirical Analysis Based on 2005—2020 Municipal Panel Data

为探究城市韧性是否以及如何影响高质量发展,利用熵权-TOPSIS评价方法,对中国285个地级及以上城市2005—2020年的城市韧性和高质量发展水平进行全面评估,运用基准回归模型实证分析城市韧性对高质量发展的直接影响,通过门槛回归模型验证城市韧性对高质量发展的门槛效应。结果表明:2005—2020年中国大部分城市的城市韧性和高质量发展水平有所上升,空间上呈现“东强西弱”的分布格局;城市韧性发展可以促进高质量发展水平提高,但会抑制协调发展和绿色发展;城市韧性对高质量发展的影响存在非线性特征,在数字经济、环境规制和创业活跃度超过门槛值的区域,城市韧性对高质量发展的促进效果更为显著。基于实证结果,提出城市韧性对高质量发展研究的政策建议。

In order to explore whether and how urban resilience affects high-quality development,a comprehensive assessment of the urban resilience and high-quality development level for 285 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2005 to 2020 was conducted using the entropy weight-TOPSIS evaluation methodology,an empirical analysis of the direct effect of urban resilience on highquality development was conducted using a benchmark regression model,and the threshold effect of urban resilience on high-quality development was validated using the threshold regression model.The results indicate that:The urban resilience and high-quality development level of most Chinese cities increased from 2005 to 2020,with a spatial distribution pattern of“east is strong and west is weak”.The development of urban resilience can promote the improvement of high-quality development,but urban resilience can inhibit coordinated and green development.The influence of urban resilience on high-quality development is characterized by non-linearity,with urban resilience contributing more significantly to high-quality development in areas where the digital economy,environmental regulation and entrepreneurial activity exceed a threshold.Based on the empirical results,policy recommendations for the study of urban resilience on high-quality development are proposed.