湖南省生态环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究——基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型

Evaluation and obstacle degree of ecological environment carrying capacity in Hunan Province——Based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model

基于DPSIR概念模型构建了湖南省生态环境承载力评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS分析法和障碍度模型,对湖南省2011—2020年生态环境承载力和障碍度进行了综合评价。结果表明:从承载力评价结果来看,2011—2015年湖南省生态环境承载力处于缓慢上升期,综合系统贴近度增长了0.068,子系统贴近度平均增长了0.059;2015—2020年处于快速增长期,综合系统贴近度增长了0.315,子系统贴近度平均增长了0.383;但至2020年,综合贴近度仍未达到“优”的等级,有待进一步提升。从障碍度分析来看,2020年,状态、压力为主要障碍系统,人均土地资源量、人口密度、水利、环境和公共设施管理业占固定资产投资比重、人口自然增长率为主要障碍指标。综合来看,提高湖南省生态环境承载力要从状态、压力子系统入手,如人口密度、人口自然增长率等指标,合理制定人口发展规划,调控局部区域人口密度,积极应对人口老龄化,加大二胎三胎政策推行力度,实现人口-资源-环境协调发展及人口的可持续发展。

Based on the DPSIR conceptual model,this study constructed the evaluation index system of ecological environment carrying capacity in Hunan Province.TOPSIS analysis method and obstacle degree model were used to comprehensively evaluate the ecological environment carrying capacity and obstacle degree in Hunan Province from 2011 to 2020.The results show that:From 2011 to 2015,the ecological environment carrying capacity of Hunan Province was in a slow rising period,the comprehensive system proximity increased by 0.068,and the subsystem proximity increased by 0.059 on average.In the period of rapid growth from 2015 to 2020,the comprehensive system proximity increased by 0.315,and the subsystem proximity increased by 0.383 on average.However,by 2020,the comprehensive proximity has not yet reached the“excellent”level and needs to be further improved.From the perspective of obstacle degree analysis,in 2020,state and pressure are the main obstacle system,and per capita land resources,population density,water conservancy,environment and public facilities management industry account for the proportion of fixed asset investment,and natural population growth rate are the main obstacle indicators.In general,to improve the ecological environment carrying capacity of Hunan Province,we should start from the state and pressure subsystems,such as population density,natural population growth rate and other indicators,rationally formulate population development plans,regulate local population density,actively cope with population aging,increase the implementation of two-child three-child policy,and realize the coordinated development of population,resources and environment and sustainable development of population.