全球地表气温对CO_(2)浓度变化的非对称响应:能量平衡模式研究

Asymmetric Response of Global Temperature to Changes in CO_(2) Concentration:Energy Balance Models Study

气候系统属性可影响二氧化碳(CO_(2))浓度变化背景下全球地表气温演变的非对称性,但目前仍不清楚哪些属性的贡献相对关键。因第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)试验样本不足,基于45个CMIP6模式数据,逐一构建了快速、再现能力理想的两层能量模型,共开展了391组试验。该模型试验结果显示,在对称的CO_(2)浓度上升和下降演变下,平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海热传输系数对全球地表气温演变的非对称性起主要贡献,它们主要通过改变CO_(2)浓度下降期全球地表气温达峰后的降温速度来实现。因此,加深对气候系统平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海热传输系数的理解,有助于更科学地实现巴黎协定目标。

Climate system properties influence asymmetry in global surface air temperature evolution under changes in carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration;however,it remains unclear which properties contribute more significantly.Owing to the insufficient number of samples from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)experiments,this study utilized the output of 45 CMIP6 models and constructed 391 sets of experiments using a two-layer energy balance model that was both rapid and reproducible.The experimental results demonstrate that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS),ocean heat capacity,and coefficient of vertical heat exchange in the ocean play primary roles in the asymmetry of the Global Surface Air Temperature(GSAT)evolution under a fixed CO_(2) concentration rise and fall.This was achieved by altering the cooling rate after the GSAT peak during the CO_(2) concentration decline period.Therefore,a deeper understanding of the ECS,ocean heat capacity,and the coefficient of vertical heat exchange in the ocean may facilitate a more scientifically realistic achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement.