基于Biomod2组合模型的福寿螺在中国的潜在分布预测

Potential distribution prediction of Pomacea canaliculata in China based on the Biomod2

福寿螺是世界范围内的外来入侵物种,严重危害了我国的农业生产、生态和人体健康。为了评价福寿螺在国内的生境适应性,本研究通过数据库查询、文献检索和新闻报道等方式收集了741个福寿螺在中国区县级的地理分布数据,使用方差膨胀因子和Pearson检验对19个生物气候因子筛选,获得5个最主要的气候因子,结合全国海拔数据,基于Biomod2组合模型研究福寿螺现在和未来气候条件下可能的适宜分布区域,以及其主要环境影响因素。结果表明:在当前时期,福寿螺在中国的适生区集中在浙江、上海、福建、江西、广东、广西、海南、云南等南方地区。在未来不同气候情景下,福寿螺在我国南方地区的适生区将大范围扩大,并向北方地区扩散。影响福寿螺适生区分布最主要的环境因子为最湿月降水量和最湿季平均气温利用组合模型预测福寿螺当前和未来气候条件下的潜在分布,将有助于管理其入侵和传播的风险,为相关地区及部门预防福寿螺扩散提前采取措施、监测和减缓该物种的入侵提供参考。

Pomacea canaliculata is a globally significant invasive species that poses substantial threats to agricultural production,ecosystems,and human health in China.To evaluate its habitat suitability in China,we collected and collated 741 county-level occurrence points of P.canaliculata in China through database query,literature search and news reports,and obtained the five most important climatic factors by variance inflation factor and Pearson correlation coefficient from 19 bioclimatic factors.We investigated the potential suitable distribution areas of P.canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios using the Biomod2 ensemble model,and identified the primary environmental variables influencing their distributions.The results showed that under the current climate,the suitable habitat areas were concentrated in southern provinces or municipalities,such as Zhejiang,Shanghai,Fujian,Jiangxi,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hainan,and Yunnan.Under different climate scenarios in the future,the suitable habitat area would show large-scale expansion in the southern provinces or municipalities,and spread to the northern region.The most two important environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitat areas were precipitation of wettest month and mean temperature of wettest quarter.A combination model to predict the potential distribution of P.canaliculata under current and future climate conditions would help manage the risk of its invasion and spread,and provide a reference for relevant regions and departments to take active measures in advance to prevent the spread,monitor and mitigate its invasion.