老龄化对新兴国家出境旅游需求的影响——基于跨国样本的实证

The Impact of Aging on Outbound Tourism Demand in Emerging Countries:Empirical Evidence Based on Cross-country Samples

人口老龄化是二战以来世界人口变化的最大特征之一,对经济和社会领域的影响深远,对旅游业的发展既是机遇又是挑战。文章以1995—2019年20个新兴国家的数据为样本,采用双向固定效应模型,实证研究老龄化对出境旅游需求的影响及其异质性特征,并探究了国家文化价值观的调节效应。研究发现:1)老龄化对出境旅游需求有正向影响;2)不同年龄阶段的老年人对出境旅游的影响存在异质性,不同老龄化程度的新兴国家对出境旅游需求的影响存在异质性;3)国家文化价值观对老年人出境旅游需求有显著的调节作用。其中,不确定性规避程度、个人主义削弱了老龄化对出境旅游需求的正向作用;高权力距离、男性主义、长期主义加强了老龄化对出境旅游需求正向作用。该研究结果将为推进新兴国家银发旅游市场的开发、完善配套政策提供参考依据。

Population aging is the most significant feature of demographic change since World War II,with far-reaching implications for the economic and social spheres.Furthermore,it presents various opportunities and challenges for tourism development.However,few studies have examined the impact of aging on outbound tourism demand,especially around emerging countries.Outbound tourism in emerging countries has grown rapidly over the past 20 years.In particular,the potential of the outbound travel market for seniors is huge,as they have increased economic accumulation,spending power,and time to make up for their strong motivation to travel.In addition,older people are more likely to be influenced by traditional national cultural values in terms of their willingness,motivation,mentality,and behavior to travel than younger people.Thus,exploring the mechanism of aging influence on outbound tourism from the perspective of national cultural values has become equally important.Using data from 20 emerging countries from 1995—2019 as a sample,this study empirically investigates the impact of aging on outbound tourism demand and its heterogeneous characteristics using a two-way fixed-effects model.Moreover,this work explores the moderating effect of national cultural values in conjunction with theories related to national cultural values.The results of the study show that aging has a significantly positive effect on outbound tourism demand in emerging countries.Heterogeneity exists in the effects of aging on outbound tourism across age groups.The proportion of younger seniors has a significantly positive effect on outbound tourism demand,while the proportion of older seniors has a nonsignificant effect on outbound tourism demand.Heterogeneity also exists in the impact of emerging countries on outbound tourism demand by different levels of aging.In lightly aging emerging countries,the share of older adults has a significantly positive effect on outbound tourism demand.However,in moderately aging emerging countries,the effect of the proportion of the elderly population on outbound tourism demand is not significant.Furthermore,national cultural values have a significant moderating effect on outbound tourism demand among older adults.Among them,the degree of uncertainty avoidance and individualism significantly weaken the positive effect of aging on outbound tourism demand.Meanwhile,high power distance,masculinity,and long-termism significantly strengthen the positive effect of aging on outbound tourism demand.The findings of this study provide a reference basis for promoting the development and marketing of the silver tourism market in emerging countries and improving the supporting policies.Theoretically,this work systematically summarizes the factors of aging that influence outbound tourism demand.Moreover,this study advances the understanding of whether differences exist in the effects of aging on outbound tourism demand among countries and why these differences exist.The research expands and complements the mechanism of aging on outbound tourism demand by introducing innovative national cultural values.This approach confirms the moderating effects of power distance,individualism,uncertainty avoidance,masculinity,and long-termism on outbound tourism demand.