当享受遭遇恐惧:自助出境旅游者风险决策的形成逻辑

When Enjoyment Meets Fear:The Formation Logic of Risk Decision-making of Independent Outbound Tourists

旅游预期享受与旅行恐惧在旅游者风险决策形成过程中的作用尚未经过实证检验。基于保护动机理论,文章以本体安全感威胁为中介变量、以旅游预期享受和旅行恐惧为调节变量,建构了旅游者风险感知对安全行为和重游意愿的影响作用模型。文章对自助出境旅游者展开问卷调查,共获得509份有效问卷,结果显示:1)旅游者风险感知对安全行为具有正向影响,对重游意愿具有负向影响;2)本体安全感威胁部分中介了风险感知对安全行为的影响路径,完全中介了风险感知对重游意愿的影响路径,它是旅游风险感知影响风险决策的重要中介变量;3)旅游预期享受负向调节风险感知对安全行为的影响,正向调节风险感知对重游意愿的影响,而旅行恐惧正向调节风险感知对安全行为的影响,负向调节风险感知对重游意愿的影响。该研究基于本体安全感和旅游期望的视角,揭示了旅游者风险决策的形成逻辑,为旅游目的地建立面向自助出境旅游者的风险管理体系和安全保障体系提供了理论依据和策略指导。

With the development of Internet technology and the rise of online travel commerce,independent outbound tourism has become an important trend and a popular way of traveling due to its high flexibility and personalization.Chinese independent outbound tourists have become sought-after customers for numerous global tourist destinations.Compared to group tourists,independent outbound tourists are highly sensitive to overseas destinations’safety and risk factors and are more susceptible to the impact and threats of safety incidents abroad.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the risk perception and risk decision-making of independent outbound tourists for the sustainable development of independent outbound tourism.Based on the protection motivation theory,this study constructs a model to examine the impact of tourists’risk perception on their safety behaviors and revisit intentions.This model uses ontological security threats as a mediating variable and expected travel enjoyment and travel fear as moderating variables.A questionnaire survey was conducted among independent outbound tourists in China,yielding 509 valid responses.The outbound travel destinations cover seven regions:Hong Kong-Macao-Taiwan regions of China,North America,Oceania,Southeast Asia,East Asia,Europe,and others(such as the United Arab Emirates and Sri Lanka).Exploratory factor analysis,confirmatory factor analysis,correlation analysis,structural equation modeling,and hierarchical regression analysis were employed to test the proposed conceptual model.The results indicate that independent outbound tourists’risk perception positively influences their safety behaviors but negatively affects their intention to revisit.In other words,the risk status of overseas destinations triggers tourists’decision-making responses regarding safety behavior.Additionally,ontological security threats partially mediate the effect of risk perception on safety behaviors and fully mediate the effect of risk perception on the intention to revisit,making it an essential intermediary variable in the influence of tourist risk perception on risk decision-making.This suggests that the risk status and factors of travel destinations threaten the ontological security of independent outbound tourists,disrupt their continuous interaction with the external environment,and undermine their stable confidence in self-development,prompting tourist decision responses.Regarding the moderation effects,positive and negative tourist expectations play different roles in tourists’reactions to destination risks.Specifically,expected enjoyment negatively moderates the effect of risk perception on safety behaviors and positively moderates its effect on intention to revisit,while travel fear positively moderates the impact of risk perception on safety behaviors and negatively moderates its effect on the intention to revisit.This study empirically examines the impact of risk perception on risk decision-making for independent outbound tourists based on the protection motivation theory,advancing the application of this theory in the field of tourism risk research.Additionally,from the perspective of ontological security threats,the study reveals the mediation mechanism of tourist risk perception affecting risk decision-making and reveals the moderating effect of tourist expectations based on the dual-factor expectation structure model,offering new variables and theoretical perspectives for analyzing the mechanism of risk perception in independent outbound tourism.Regarding its managerial significance,the study provides the theoretical basis and strategic guidance for establishing risk management and safety assurance systems tailored to independent outbound tourists at tourist destinations.