我国旅游消费现代化时空特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Pattern of Tourism Consumption Modernization and Influencing Factors

文章界定了旅游消费现代化的概念并构建其评价指标体系。利用CRITIC法计算了2011~2019年31个省市区旅游消费现代化指数,分析其时空分布格局及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)大部分省市区旅游消费现代化指数呈逐年上升的时间趋势,发展不平衡程度存在微弱的上升趋势;(2)旅游消费现代化存在区域异质,东部发展较好,中部和东北呈波动上升趋势,西部呈波动变化趋势;(3)旅游消费现代化水平存在空间正自相关,且程度呈增强的态势,集聚效果愈发显著。多数省市区旅游消费现代化属于低-低正自相关的集聚类型,且此类型的省市区逐年增加。(4)经济发展水平、人口、数字化、科技创新、政府干预均对旅游消费现代化有显著的正向影响。

This paper identifies the concept of tourism consumption modernization,constructs the evaluation index system of tourism consumption modernization,calculates the tourism consumption modernization index by using the CRITIC method based on the balanced panel data of 31 provinces from 2011 to 2019,and analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution pattern and the influential factors.The results show that①the tourism consumption modernization index of most provinces shows a temporal trend of rising year by year and there is a slight upward trend in the degree of uneven development;②there is regional heterogeneity in the tourism consumption modernization,with better development in the eastern region,fluctuating upward trends in the central and northeastern regions and fluctuating trends in the western region;③there is a significant spatial positive autocorrelation in the level of tourism consumption modernization,and the degree trends increasingly.Most of the provincial tourism consumption modernization belong to the low-low positive autocorrelation of agglomeration type,and this type of provinces gradually increases;④economic development,population size,informatization,scientific and technological innovation,and government intervention have significantly positive effects on tourism consumption modernization.