产业的就业扩张对劳动力市场中过度教育的影响

The Effect of Employment Expansion of Industries in China on Over-Education in the Labor Market

本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据与城市层面不同产业的就业扩张数据,考察了各产业的就业扩张对劳动力市场中过度教育发生率的影响及其机制。研究发现,制造业、中间服务业、高端服务业与垄断行业的就业扩张能够显著降低劳动力市场中过度教育的发生率,但第二产业中的非制造业、传统服务业与竞争性行业的就业扩张对过度教育的发生率没有显著影响。影响机制分析表明,制造业、中间服务业、高端服务业与垄断行业的就业扩张能够促进劳动者接受更多或更高层次的教育,同时,受教育程度越高的劳动者进入这些产业就业的可能性越大。因此,制造业、中间服务业、高端服务业与垄断行业的就业扩张通过提高劳动者与工作岗位的匹配程度从而降低了过度教育的发生率。基本的政策内涵包括:政府应着力构建普通教育与职业教育共同发展的多元化教育体系;普通高等教育应进一步优化专业设置,合理规划招生规模;提升职业教育的数量和质量;持续推进传统产业的转型升级,大力发展中高等技能职业等。

By matching the data from the four waves of CFPS dataset and the employment expansion data of industries at the city level,this paper empirically examines the effect of employment expansion of different sub-industries on the incidence of over-education in the labor market from the perspective of human capital demand side.The study finds that the employment expansion of the urban manufacturing industry,median service industry,upper service industry,and monopoly industry can obviously reduce the incidence of over-education in the labor market.However,the employment expansion of the urban nonmanufacturing industry,traditional service industry,and competitive industry can not apparently decrease the likelihood of over-education.The result of mechanism analysis reveals that the employment expansion of the urban manufacturing industry,median service industry,upper service industry,and monopoly industry can remarkably promote workers receiving more or higher level of education,meanwhile,workers with more or higher level of education also have more opportunities to enter these industries.So the employment expansion of urban industries reduces the likelihood of over-education in the labor market by increasing the matching degree between workers and the job positions.The basic policy implication includes that the government should establish a diversified education development system including general education and vocational education.General higher education should further optimize the structure of majors and reasonably plan the recruitment scale.Vocational education should pay more attention to improving both the quantity and quality of the graduates.The government should continue pushing on the transformation and upgrade of traditional industries and strive to develop more job positions that need intermediate or senior-grade skills.