基于BWM-DS证据理论的大风浪环境下渔船航行安全评估

Navigation Safety Assessment of Fishing Vessels in High Wind and Wave Environment Based on BWM-DS Evidence Theory

为预判渔船在大风浪环境下航行时的安全状况,从人、船、环境和管理等4方面进行分析,结合因果分析图法建立渔船在大风浪环境下航行的安全评估指标体系。运用最优最劣法(BWM)确定各指标的权重,采用D-S证据理论的合成标准融合各评价指标的权重,通过基本信任函数赋值的方法得到基本可信度值,确定其风险,得到基于BWM-DS证据理论的渔船安全评估新模型。运用该模型对渔船“粤阳江渔07128”在大风浪环境下翻沉的事故进行评估,验证该模型的有效性。评估结果表明,采用该模型评估所得结果与事故实际情况和专家主观评估结果相符,证明该模型能有效评价渔船在大风浪环境下的安全航行状况。

In order to predict the navigation safety status of fishing vessels in the high wind and wave environment,the four aspects of"man-ship-environment-management"have been analyzed,and the causal analysis diagram method is combined to establish the navigation safety assessment index system of fishing vessels in the high wind and wave environment.The best and worst method(BWM)is used to determine the weight of each index,and the synthetic standard of D-S evidence theory is used to integrate the weight of each evaluation index,and the basic confidence value is obtained through the basic trust function assignment method to determine its risk,that is,a new model of fishing vessel safety assessment based on BWM-DS evidence theory.The model is used to evaluate the accident of the fishing vessel"Yueyang Jiangyu 07128"capsizing and sinking in the environment of strong wind and waves,and the effectiveness of the model has been verified.The results indicate that the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation of the accident and the subjective evaluation results of experts.This model can effectively evaluate the safe navigation status of fishing vessels in high wind and wave environments.