劳动力流动、产业集聚与区域经济协调发展——基于人口红利拐点来临的约束视角

Study on Labor Mobility,Industrial Agglomeration,and Coordinated Regional Economic Development:From the Perspective Based on the Arrival of Demographic Dividend Inflection Point

在人口红利拐点下,分析了劳动力流动、产业集聚对区域经济协调的理论机制,并以长江经济带为例构建了劳动力流动、产业集聚与区域经济协调发展的回归模型,在人口红利拐点的背景下,深入探讨了劳动力流动和产业集聚对区域经济协调发展的影响机制。实证研究结果表明,劳动力趋向于向经济发达地区集中,这会加大区域经济发展的差距;产业集聚对提升区域经济水平有积极作用;在人口老龄化背景下,劳动力流动对优化劳动力配置和缓解老龄化压力尤为关键;分区域分析则揭示了不同区域产业集聚对经济增长的差异化推动作用,其中上游区域的劳动力市场活跃度和下游地区的市场成熟度及人才优势是推动各自经济增长的重要因素。

This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of labour mobility and industrial agglomeration on regional economic coordination at the inflection point of demographic dividend,and constructs a regression model of the Yangtze River Economic Belt region with labour mobility,industrial agglomeration and coordinated regional economy development.Against the backdrop of the demographic dividend inflection point,the mechanisms of labor mobility and industrial agglomeration on the coordinated regional economic development are explored in depth.The results of the empirical study show that:the labour force tends to concentrate in economically developed regions,which will widen the gap of regional economic development;industrial agglomeration has a positive effect on improving the regional economic level.In the context of population aging,labour mobility is especially crucial for optimizing the labour force allocation and alleviating the aging pressure.Sub-regional analysis,reveals the differentiated role of industrial agglomeration across different regions in promoting economic growth,with the vitality of labour market in the upstream regions and the market maturity and talent advantage in the downstream regions being important factors driving their respective economic growth.