人口结构对我国区域创新效率的影响及其空间效应

The Impact of Population Structure on China’s Regional Innovation Efficiency and Its Spatial Effect

区域创新效率提升是提高区域创新能力的重要保障,而人口结构是影响区域创新效率提升的关键因素。基于2010—2020年我国31个省级行政单元的面板数据,运用Super-SBM模型、双固定效应和空间面板计量模型,探究人口结构对我国区域创新效率的影响。研究结果表明,人口结构对区域创新效率具有显著影响,其中,人均受教育水平、城镇化水平和人口集聚对区域创新效率有促进作用,而人口老龄化对区域创新效率存在抑制作用。人口集聚与区域创新效率之间还存在先促进后抑制的非线性关系。人口老龄化对东部地区的区域创新效率有促进作用,人口集聚在中部地区出现抑制效应,西部地区与基准回归的结果一致。人均受教育水平、人口集聚与区域创新效率之间存在显著的空间效应。其中,人均受教育水平促进周边省份区域创新效率,人口集聚则产生抑制作用;老龄化和城镇化水平不存在显著的空间效应。

Enhancing regional innovation efficiency is a critical determinant for bolstering regional innovation capacities,wherein population structure plays a pivotal role.Utilizing panel data from 31 provincial-level administrative units in China from 2010 to 2020,this study employs the Super-SBM model,dual fixed effects,and spatial panel econometric models to explore the impact of population structure on China’s regional innovation efficiency.The empirical results demonstrate population structure has a significant influence on regional innovation efficiency.Notably,per capita education level,urbanization,and population agglomeration contribute positively to regional innovation efficiency,whereas population aging exerts a suppressive effect.Furthermore,the relationship between population agglomeration and regional innovation efficiency is characterized by a non-linear relationship,initially facilitating and subsequently inhibiting innovation.Population aging promotes regional innovation efficiency in eastern regions,while population agglomeration inhibits it in central regions;in western regions,the results are consistent with the benchmark regression.Significant spatial effects are observed between the per capita education level,population agglomeration,and regional innovation efficiency.The per capita education level enhances innovation efficiency in adjacent provinces,and population agglomeration generates inhibitory outcomes.Contrarily,population aging and urbanization levels exhibit no significant spatial effects.