农业新质生产力对农业现代化发展的影响研究

Study on the Influence of New Quality Agricultural Productive Forces on Agricultural Modernization Development

实现农业现代化是中国式现代化的应有之义,也是加快建设农业强国的必由之路。农业新质生产力为农业现代化提供新型劳动者、新型劳动资料、新型劳动对象及其优化组合,是实现中国式农业现代化的重要动力。基于2012—2021年中国省际面板数据,通过构建农业新质生产力和农业现代化指标评价体系,采用熵值法和计量模型实证检验了农业新质生产力对农业现代化发展的影响。研究结果表明,农业新质生产力对农业现代化发展具有显著促进作用,但存在异质性,其中,中西部地区大于东部地区,非粮食主产区大于粮食主产区。中介效应表明,农业机械化水平在农业新质生产力促进农业现代化发展中起到了中介作用;门槛效应表明,农业新质生产力对农业现代化的影响效果受城镇化水平的制约,在城镇化水平由低变高的过程中,农业新质生产力对农业现代化的影响效果呈“U”型趋势。建议加强基础设施投入和农业核心技术攻关,大力发展农业新质生产力;综合运用财政、税收等宏观调控手段,引导和发展高精端农业机械装备;注重区域差异,推动农业新质生产力差异化发展;加快推进城乡基本公共服务均等化,深入实施乡村人才振兴等,以提升农业新质生产力推动农业现代化发展的效果。

Achieving agricultural modernization is a fundamental aspect of Chinese modernization.The only way to accelerate the construction of agricultural power is through enhancing new quality agricultural productive forces.The new quality agricultural productive forces introduces new laborers,new labor materials,new labor objects,and their optimal combinations for agricultural modernization,which serves as a crucial driving force for achieving Chinese-style agricultural modernization.This paper empirically tests the impact of new quality agricultural productive forces on agricultural modernization using inter-provincial panel data from China spanning 2012 to 2021.An index evaluation system for new quality agricultural productive forces and agricultural modernization in China was constructed,employing the entropy method and econometric models.The results indicate that new quality agricultural productive forces significantly influences the development of agricultural modernization;however,there is notable heterogeneity.Specifically,the impact is more pronounced in the central and western regions compared to the eastern regions,and it is greater in non-grain producing areas than in major grain producing areas.The mediating effect analysis reveals that the level of agricultural mechanization plays a crucial role in facilitating the advancement of agricultural modernization.Furthermore,the threshold effect indicates that the influence of new quality agricultural productive forces on agricultural modernization is constrained by the level of urbanization.As the urbanization level transitions from low to high,the effect of new quality agricultural productivity on agricultural modernization exhibits a"U-shape".It is recommended to enhance infrastructure investment and promote public awareness of core agricultural technologies while vigorously developing new quality agricultural productive forces.Fiscal,tax,and other macro-control measures should be employed to guide the development of high-precision agricultural machinery and equipment.Attention must be given to regional differences to foster the differentiated development of new quality agricultural productive forces.Additionally,efforts should be made to accelerate the equalization of basic public services in urban and rural areas and to implement four policy recommendations,including the revitalization of rural talent,to improve the effectiveness of new quality agricultural productive forces in promoting agricultural modernization.